Sam Howell's passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity with a 64.7% hit rate across 17 games. His 1.24 touchdown average consistently falls short of typical 1.32 lines, generating +23.5% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Howell's touchdown props.
Expert Analysis
Sam Howell's touchdown production reveals the harsh reality of a developing quarterback thrust into starting duties. His 1.24 touchdown average against 1.32 lines reflects consistent underperformance that stems from multiple structural factors. Washington's offensive limitations during Howell's tenure created a perfect storm for touchdown scarcity - limited red zone efficiency, conservative play-calling, and a quarterback still learning NFL defenses. The 6-11 over-under record isn't just bad luck; it represents systemic issues that plagued Howell's entire sample. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates how quickly touchdown droughts can develop when a quarterback lacks elite arm talent and supporting cast. The -32.6% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about the market's tendency to overvalue young quarterbacks' touchdown potential. Even his brief two-game over streak likely represented variance rather than genuine improvement, as the underlying metrics never supported sustained touchdown production. Now in Seattle's system, Howell faces similar challenges as a backup-turned-starter, suggesting these patterns could persist. The consistency of his underperformance across the entire 17-game sample indicates this isn't merely a rough patch but a reflection of his current NFL ceiling.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Howell's 64.7% under rate and +23.5% ROI create a compelling systematic edge that transcends team context. His 1.24 touchdown average consistently falls below market expectations, making unders the clear play regardless of opponent or game script. The primary risk involves potential offensive evolution in Seattle, but his track record suggests touchdown production will remain limited.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam Howell's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Sam Howell went 6-11 on passing touchdown overs across 17 games, hitting just 35.3% of over bets. His under record of 11-6 generated +23.5% ROI, while overs lost -32.6% of invested capital consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam Howell Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Sam Howell's passing touchdowns. His 64.7% under rate and 1.24 touchdown average create a systematic edge against inflated lines. The data overwhelmingly supports under bets with high confidence.
What's Sam Howell's average Passing TDs all games?
Sam Howell averaged 1.24 passing touchdowns per game across his 17-game sample. This falls 0.08 touchdowns below typical 1.32 lines, creating consistent value on under bets throughout his starting tenure.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Howell's touchdown unders regardless of game context, as his 17-game sample shows consistent underperformance. Target games with higher lines above 1.5, where the market's overvaluation becomes most pronounced and profitable.