Sam Darnold has hit the over just 40% of the time in his last 10 games despite averaging 11.4 yards above the typical line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have been brutal at -23.6%. This creates a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Sam Darnold's passing yard props. While his 266.4-yard average suggests he's been productive, the 4-6 over/under record reveals a critical disconnect between production and betting value. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market has consistently overvalued Darnold's aerial output, likely influenced by his surprising early-season success that inflated expectations. The Vikings' offensive identity has shifted throughout the season, with increased reliance on their rushing attack and shorter passing concepts that boost completion percentage but limit explosive plays. Darnold's current two-game under streak aligns with this trend, as Minnesota has prioritized ball control over aggressive downfield passing. The 14.6% ROI on unders suggests sharp money has identified this market inefficiency. Most concerning for over bettors is the persistence of this pattern—when a quarterback consistently fails to exceed inflated lines, it often indicates a fundamental mismatch between market perception and offensive reality. The Vikings' playoff positioning and conservative approach in meaningful games further supports this under bias, as they've shown willingness to win ugly rather than chase statistics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI combined with Darnold's current two-game under streak suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Minnesota's more conservative offensive approach. Target unders when the line exceeds 260 yards, particularly in games where the Vikings are favored or facing strong pass defenses. The main risk is a potential shootout scenario that forces Minnesota to abandon their ground-heavy game plan.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 265.5 | 245.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 294.5 | 166.0 | -128.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 263.5 | 377.0 | +113.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 246.5 | 246.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 254.5 | 231.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 256.5 | 347.0 | +90.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 256.5 | 235.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 229.5 | 330.0 | +100.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 237.5 | 246.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 245.5 | 241.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam Darnold's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Sam Darnold has gone 4-6 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his props. Despite averaging 266.4 yards per game, he's consistently fallen short of market expectations, creating a profitable under trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam Darnold Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Sam Darnold's passing yards. The 14.6% under ROI versus -23.6% over ROI shows clear value, especially with his current two-game under streak and Minnesota's increasingly conservative offensive approach in recent weeks.
What's Sam Darnold's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Sam Darnold averages 266.4 passing yards over his last 10 games, which is 11.4 yards above the typical 255-yard line. However, this production has translated to just a 40% over rate, indicating the market overvalues his output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sam Darnold under props when the line exceeds 260 yards or when Minnesota is favored by more than a field goal. The Vikings' conservative game management and emphasis on ball control create ideal conditions for under bets.