Sam Darnold has delivered consistent passing touchdown value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip while averaging 1.9 touchdowns against a 1.6 line. The +0.3 differential and +14.6% ROI on overs suggests sustainable production despite recent regression. Lean over remains the sharper side.
Expert Analysis
Darnold's passing touchdown production reflects a quarterback finding his rhythm in Minnesota's system, though the numbers reveal important nuances. The 1.9 average against 1.6 lines indicates consistent market undervaluation, particularly impressive given the modest differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted. The 60% over rate paired with +14.6% ROI demonstrates genuine edge rather than variance-driven results. However, the recent two-game under streak warrants attention, especially following a four-game over run that likely represented peak efficiency. The Vikings' offensive structure, featuring multiple red zone weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, creates natural touchdown distribution that supports consistent multi-score games. Darnold's comfort level in Kevin O'Connell's system has clearly improved, evidenced by the sustained production over this 10-game sample. The lack of extreme variance in either direction suggests a quarterback operating within his capabilities rather than riding unsustainable hot streaks. While the recent under streak could signal regression toward his career norms, the sample size and supporting cast suggest this level of touchdown production has staying power, particularly in favorable game scripts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.9 average against 1.6 lines represents genuine value, supported by Minnesota's multi-weapon offense and Darnold's improved comfort in the system. Target overs in games with projected shootout potential or when facing defenses vulnerable to multiple passing scores. Main risk is the recent under streak continuing if the Vikings lean heavily on their ground game or face elite pass defenses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam Darnold's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Darnold has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), delivering a +14.6% ROI on overs. He's averaging 1.9 touchdowns per game against typical lines of 1.6, creating consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam Darnold Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean over on Darnold's passing touchdowns props. The 1.9 average against 1.6 lines shows sustainable production, and Minnesota's multiple weapons create natural touchdown distribution. Focus on favorable matchups and projected high-scoring games for maximum edge.
What's Sam Darnold's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Darnold averages 1.9 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to typical lines of 1.6. This +0.3 differential indicates he's consistently exceeding market expectations, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his improved production level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Darnold passing touchdown overs in projected shootouts or against defenses allowing multiple passing scores. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI suggest consistent value, particularly when Minnesota's offense operates in favorable game scripts.