Russell Wilson has delivered exceptional passing touchdown value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 70% clip with a +33.6% ROI. His 1.5 touchdown average consistently beats the typical 1.3 line, creating a measurable edge. This represents a clear lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's passing touchdown surge reflects Pittsburgh's offensive evolution under his leadership, with the veteran quarterback finding consistent red zone rhythm that eluded the Steelers earlier this season. The 1.5 touchdown average against 1.3 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Wilson's integration with Pittsburgh's receiving corps, particularly his chemistry with George Pickens and tight end usage near the goal line. The 70% over rate isn't just hot variance—it's supported by Wilson's career-long red zone efficiency and Pittsburgh's improved offensive pace under his command. However, the small sample size raises regression concerns, especially as defenses get more film on Pittsburgh's revamped passing attack. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify Wilson's strongest touchdown conditions, but his consistent production across this 10-game stretch suggests sustainable improvement rather than unsustainable luck. The biggest risk lies in Pittsburgh's potential return to ground-heavy approaches in adverse weather or when protecting leads, which could cap Wilson's touchdown ceiling in certain game scripts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 70% over rate and +0.2 average differential create legitimate value, particularly when Pittsburgh faces pass-funnel defenses or trailing game scripts. The main risk is regression to his career norms and Pittsburgh's weather-dependent offensive philosophy. Target overs in dome games or when facing weak secondary coverage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Russell Wilson's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Wilson has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% over rate) with a 7-3-0 record. This strong performance has generated a +33.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Russell Wilson Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean over on Wilson's passing touchdowns props. His 70% over rate and consistent 1.5 average against 1.3 lines create measurable value, especially in favorable matchups against weak pass defenses or dome environments.
What's Russell Wilson's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Wilson averages 1.5 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, which is 0.2 touchdowns above the typical 1.3 line. This differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his improved red zone production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson touchdown overs in dome games, against pass-funnel defenses, or when Pittsburgh is likely to trail. Avoid in harsh weather conditions or against elite run defenses that force ground-heavy game scripts.