Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing props have been a coin flip over his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 on overs with a neutral -4.5% ROI on both sides. The Patriots back is averaging 44.5 yards against a 51.3 line, creating a consistent 6.8-yard shortfall that suggests modest under value.
Expert Analysis
The 6.8-yard negative differential tells the story of New England's offensive struggles and Stevenson's diminished role in their rushing attack. While the 50% over rate suggests balance, the consistent underperformance against the number indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced workload. Stevenson's averaging 44.5 yards suggests he's operating in a lower-volume role than his reputation commands, likely due to game script issues with the Patriots frequently trailing and abandoning the run. The neutral ROI masks the fact that he's consistently falling short of inflated expectations. His recent usage patterns show a back who's reliable for 40-50 yards but struggles to reach the 55+ yard territory that overs typically require. The lack of explosive games in this sample is concerning for over bettors, as Stevenson hasn't shown the ceiling needed to justify higher lines. Game flow remains the critical factor - when New England falls behind early, Stevenson's touches evaporate quickly. The Patriots' offensive line struggles have also limited his efficiency, making it harder to accumulate yards even when he gets opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.8-yard negative differential provides consistent value on unders, especially when Stevenson's line sits above 50 yards. Target unders when the Patriots face strong passing offenses that could force game script away from the ground game. The main risk is a positive game script where New England controls the clock, but their recent offensive struggles make this scenario increasingly rare.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 43.5 | 1.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 47.5 | 60.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 48.5 | 69.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 51.5 | 73.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 55.5 | 13.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 58.5 | 73.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 56.5 | 74.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 55.5 | 16.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 48.5 | 48.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 47.5 | 18.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rhamondre Stevenson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Rhamondre Stevenson has gone 5-5-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games with a neutral -4.5% ROI. While the record appears balanced, he's consistently averaging 6.8 yards below his prop lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Stevenson's rushing yards props. His 44.5-yard average against 51.3 lines shows consistent shortfalls, especially when lines exceed 50 yards. Target unders when New England faces strong passing offenses.
What's Rhamondre Stevenson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Stevenson is averaging 44.5 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 51.3 yards. This 6.8-yard negative differential indicates he's consistently falling short of market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stevenson rushing unders when his line exceeds 50 yards and the Patriots face strong passing offenses that could force trailing game scripts. Avoid when New England is favored by multiple scores.