Fade UNDER
5-9 O/U Record
35.7% Over Rate
-4.5u Units Won
-31.8% ROI
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Rhamondre Stevenson's reception props in away games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 35.7% of overs across 14 games with a devastating -31.8% ROI on overs. His 2.29 average sits half a reception below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders.

Expert Analysis

The Patriots' road struggles create a perfect storm for Stevenson reception unders. Away from Foxborough, New England's offensive rhythm deteriorates significantly, leading to more predictable rushing attacks and fewer creative packages that utilize Stevenson in space. The 2.29 average versus 2.79 typical lines reveals books haven't fully adjusted to this road deficiency. This isn't simply variance—it reflects systematic issues with the Patriots' away game preparation and execution. Road environments force New England into more conservative play-calling, reducing the screen passes and checkdowns that typically inflate Stevenson's reception totals. The current four-game under streak suggests this trend is accelerating rather than correcting. Most concerning for over bettors is how consistently Stevenson fails to reach even modest reception totals on the road. The -0.5 differential might seem small, but in a low-volume stat like running back receptions, it represents a significant edge. The 22.7% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a winning trend—it's a profitable one with staying power. Road games strip away the Patriots' home-field advantages in communication and timing, directly impacting the quick-hitting passing plays that generate Stevenson's reception opportunities.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 35.7% over rate and -0.5 average differential create consistent value, particularly when lines sit at 2.5 or higher. Target games where New England faces quality defenses that can force predictable game scripts. Primary risk is a potential Patriots offensive evolution or Stevenson injury creating more passing down usage, but current trends strongly favor the under.

5 OVERS (35.7%)
9 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 14 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2024-12-22 OPP 2.5 1.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-12-15 OPP 2.5 1.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-11-24 OPP 2.5 0.0 -2.5 UNDER
2024-11-10 OPP 2.5 1.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-11-03 OPP 2.5 5.0 +2.5 OVER
2024-10-20 OPP 2.5 2.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-09-29 OPP 2.5 4.0 +1.5 OVER
2024-09-19 OPP 2.5 0.0 -2.5 UNDER
2024-09-08 OPP 2.5 3.0 +0.5 OVER
2023-11-26 OPP 3.5 5.0 +1.5 OVER
2023-10-29 OPP 3.5 2.0 -1.5 UNDER
2023-10-15 OPP 2.5 5.0 +2.5 OVER
2023-10-01 OPP 3.5 2.0 -1.5 UNDER
2023-09-24 OPP 3.5 1.0 -2.5 UNDER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 50.0% Over
Away 35.7% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 20.0% Over
Last 10 40.0% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Rhamondre Stevenson's Receptions prop record away games?

Stevenson's reception props in away games show a 5-9-0 over/under record (35.7% overs) across 14 games from September 2023 through December 2024, with unders providing a strong 22.7% ROI while overs lose at -31.8%.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions away games?

Bet under on Stevenson's receptions in away games. The 35.7% over rate and -0.5 average differential create consistent value, especially when lines are 2.5 or higher against quality defenses that force conservative Patriots game plans.

What's Rhamondre Stevenson's average Receptions away games?

Stevenson averages 2.29 receptions in away games, sitting 0.5 receptions below the typical 2.79 line. This half-reception gap represents significant value in a low-volume stat category for running backs.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Stevenson reception unders when New England plays away against strong defenses or in primetime road games. These situations maximize the Patriots' conservative tendencies and minimize the creative packages that generate his reception opportunities.

Methodology: This analysis covers 14 games from 2023-09-24 to 2024-12-22. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.