Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving yards props have been an under bettor's dream, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 26 games with a brutal -26.6% ROI on the over side. The Patriots running back averages 15.5 receiving yards against lines typically set around 16.65, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The Patriots' offensive identity fundamentally limits Stevenson's receiving upside. New England ranks among the NFL's most run-heavy teams, and when they do throw to running backs, it's typically short checkdowns rather than designed receiving plays. Stevenson's 15.5-yard average reflects this reality - he's not a pass-catching specialist like Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara. The -1.1 differential between his average and typical lines suggests oddsmakers may be overvaluing his receiving potential based on his overall talent rather than his actual role. The current two-game under streak extends what has been a remarkably consistent pattern, with his longest over streak reaching just two games compared to a six-game under run. This isn't variance - it's systematic underperformance driven by scheme and usage. The Patriots' conservative offensive approach, combined with their preference for using Stevenson as a traditional between-the-tackles runner, creates structural limitations on his receiving volume. Even in negative game scripts where teams typically throw more to running backs, New England often opts for quick slants to receivers rather than dump-offs to the backfield.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 17.5% ROI on unders combined with the -1.1 average differential creates a sustainable edge against inflated lines. Target unders when the line sits above 16 yards, particularly in games where the Patriots project to control pace or face strong pass defenses that limit explosive plays. The main risk is a dramatic offensive philosophy change under new coordinator Alex Van Pelt, but 26 games of data suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 16.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 21.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 16.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 3.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 15.5 | 38.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 15.5 | 7.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 14.5 | 6.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 22.5 | 0.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rhamondre Stevenson's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Stevenson has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 10 of 26 games (38.5%) from September 2023 through December 2024. His under record of 16-10-0 represents one of the most reliable trends for any skill position player during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Stevenson's receiving yards props. The 17.5% ROI on unders and his consistent 1.1-yard shortfall against lines creates sustainable value. Target unders when lines exceed 16 yards for maximum edge in this Patriots offense.
What's Rhamondre Stevenson's average Receiving Yards all games?
Stevenson averages 15.5 receiving yards per game against typical lines of 16.65 yards. This -1.1 differential has been remarkably consistent across 26 games, suggesting oddsmakers consistently overestimate his receiving role in New England's ground-focused attack.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stevenson receiving yards unders when lines are set above 16 yards and the Patriots face strong pass defenses. His props offer the best value in games where New England projects to control tempo and limit overall passing volume.