Ray Davis has been a consistent under play, hitting just 20% of his rushing yards overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI on overs. Currently riding a six-game under streak while averaging 10.7 yards against an 18.9 line. The under presents strong value.
Expert Analysis
Ray Davis's rushing yards props reveal a player consistently overvalued by the market, creating systematic under opportunities. The rookie back is averaging just 10.7 rushing yards per game while facing lines averaging 18.9 yards—an 8.2-yard differential that screams market inefficiency. This isn't variance; it's structural. Davis operates in Buffalo's crowded backfield behind James Cook, limiting his touches to specific packages and garbage time situations. The Bills' pass-heavy offense under Josh Allen further constrains rushing opportunities for secondary backs. Davis's role appears clearly defined as a change-of-pace option rather than a featured runner, yet books continue pricing him as if he'll see consistent volume. The six-game under streak isn't fluky—it reflects his actual usage pattern in Buffalo's system. With limited split data available, the consistency of this trend across different game scripts suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to Davis's role reality. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear value, while the -61.8% over ROI shows how badly the market has mispriced his ceiling. Unless Davis's role dramatically expands or injuries create opportunity, this trend should persist as books remain slow to adjust rookie running back lines to actual usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Ray Davis's rushing yards props offer exceptional under value with a 52.7% ROI and 80% hit rate over his last 10 games. The market consistently overestimates his role in Buffalo's offense, creating an 8.2-yard average differential. Target unders when lines exceed 15 yards, as Davis rarely sees the volume needed to clear higher thresholds. Main risk is a James Cook injury creating expanded opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 3.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 9.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 25.5 | 12.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 11.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 6.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 20.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 24.5 | 29.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Ray Davis props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ray Davis's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Ray Davis has gone under his rushing yards prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80%), posting just a 20% over rate. He's averaging 10.7 rushing yards per game against lines averaging 18.9 yards, creating an 8.2-yard negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ray Davis Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Ray Davis rushing yards props. The data strongly supports under bets with an 80% hit rate and 52.7% ROI over his last 10 games. His role as a backup limits consistent rushing volume in Buffalo's offense.
What's Ray Davis's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Ray Davis is averaging 10.7 rushing yards per game over his last 10 contests, significantly below his average line of 18.9 yards. This 8.2-yard differential shows the market consistently overvalues his rushing production in Buffalo's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ray Davis rushing yards unders when lines exceed 15 yards, as he rarely sees enough volume to clear higher thresholds. His backup role behind James Cook makes unders especially valuable in competitive games when Buffalo leans on their established players.