Raheem Mostert has been a consistent under performer, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.3 yard differential versus the betting line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 23.6%, creating a clear edge for contrarian bettors.
Expert Analysis
Mostert's rushing yard struggles reflect Miami's broader offensive identity crisis throughout 2024. The veteran back averaged just 28.9 yards against lines set at 30.2, suggesting oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to his diminished role in the Dolphins' evolving backfield committee. The 4-6 over/under record tells only part of the story - the consistency of the underperformance is what creates betting value. Unlike boom-bust players who alternate between massive games and duds, Mostert has been remarkably steady in his mediocrity, rarely threatening his number even when Miami's offense showed flashes. This pattern suggests structural issues rather than temporary variance. The Dolphins' shift toward more passing-heavy game scripts, combined with increased usage of younger backs in key situations, has systematically capped Mostert's ceiling. His advanced age and injury history have also limited his explosiveness, turning him into a volume-dependent player who rarely gets the necessary carries to reach inflated lines. The betting market's continued overvaluation of his name recognition versus current production creates exploitable value, particularly when Miami faces game scripts that don't favor sustained ground attacks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mostert's consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates systematic value, especially when the Dolphins face competitive games requiring more passing volume. The -1.3 yard differential and 14.6% under ROI demonstrate clear market inefficiency. Primary risk involves potential positive regression or increased workload if Miami commits to establishing the run, but his age and committee backfield situation limit explosive upside scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 3.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 17.5 | 31.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 8.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 32.5 | 0.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 31.5 | 56.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 35.5 | 19.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 33.5 | 50.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 27.5 | 80.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 9.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 45.5 | 33.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Raheem Mostert's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mostert has gone 4-6 on rushing yard overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his numbers. He's averaging 28.9 yards against lines set at 30.2, creating a consistent 1.3-yard shortfall that has delivered 14.6% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Mostert's rushing yards. The consistent underperformance, negative 1.3-yard differential, and 14.6% under ROI create clear value. His diminished role in Miami's committee backfield and the team's pass-heavy approach make unders the smart play.
What's Raheem Mostert's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Mostert is averaging 28.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 30.2 yards. This 1.3-yard deficit represents consistent underperformance and suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to his reduced effectiveness in Miami's evolving offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mostert under props when Miami faces competitive games requiring passing volume or when playing from behind. His age and committee role limit ceiling, making unders especially valuable in fast-paced matchups where the Dolphins need to throw frequently.