Raheem Mostert presents a perfectly balanced rushing yards proposition with a 12-12 record against the total, though he's averaging 52.46 yards against a 45.17 line for a +7.3 differential. The negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing, making this a situational play rather than a systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Mostert's rushing yards props tell the story of a veteran back whose production fluctuates dramatically based on game script and health status. The 50% hit rate masks significant volatility - his +7.3 yard differential above the line indicates oddsmakers consistently undervalue his ceiling when healthy and featured. However, the negative ROI on both sides reveals sharp market correction, suggesting books have adjusted to his boom-or-bust nature. The equal-length streaks (3 games max in either direction) demonstrate how quickly his role can shift based on Miami's offensive approach and Tua Tagovailoa's health. When the Dolphins are forced to abandon the run due to negative game script, Mostert becomes touchdown-dependent for value. Conversely, in favorable matchups against weak run defenses, his explosive speed creates massive ceiling games that crush the under. The key lies in identifying when Miami's offensive line health and game script align - Mostert thrives in positive game flow but becomes a liability when the Dolphins fall behind early. His advanced age and injury history mean each game carries regression risk, making recent snap counts and target shares crucial indicators.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +7.3 differential suggests consistent line value despite the balanced record. Target games where Miami projects as favorites by 3+ points with a healthy offensive line, as Mostert's explosive plays create massive ceiling potential. Primary risk remains negative game script forcing Miami into pass-heavy situations, eliminating his rushing opportunities entirely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 3.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 17.5 | 31.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 8.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 32.5 | 0.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 31.5 | 56.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 35.5 | 19.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 33.5 | 50.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 27.5 | 80.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 9.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 45.5 | 33.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 56.5 | 46.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 45.5 | 96.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 48.5 | 43.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 66.5 | 94.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 53.5 | 86.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Raheem Mostert's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Raheem Mostert has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 12 of 24 games (50.0%) across the sample period. His perfectly balanced 12-12 record demonstrates remarkable consistency in market efficiency for his rushing production totals.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards all games?
Lean over on Mostert's rushing yards props, targeting games where Miami is favored by 3+ points. His +7.3 average differential above the line provides consistent value when game script favors ground attack usage and offensive execution.
What's Raheem Mostert's average Rushing Yards all games?
Mostert averages 52.46 rushing yards per game against an average line of 45.17 yards, creating a significant +7.3 differential. This gap suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his ceiling potential when healthy and properly utilized in Miami's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mostert rushing yards overs when Miami is home favorites against weak run defenses. Avoid games where the Dolphins project to trail early or face elite defensive fronts that force immediate passing situations and limit ground game opportunities.