Raheem Mostert has hit the receiving yards over in 70% of his last 10 games (7-3-0), averaging 12.7 yards against lines typically set around 7.2. The 5.5-yard differential and current five-game over streak signal a clear market inefficiency. This represents a strong lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Mostert's receiving production surge reflects Miami's evolving offensive identity under Mike McDaniel's system. The 12.7-yard average against 7.2-yard lines suggests books are consistently undervaluing his pass-catching role, creating a sustainable edge. This isn't just variance—Mostert has become integral to Miami's screen game and checkdown patterns, particularly as the Dolphins have faced increased pressure situations throughout the season. The five-game over streak indicates this usage pattern has crystallized into a reliable offensive feature rather than situational deployment. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the differential. Mostert isn't just barely clearing low bars; he's exceeding expectations by significant margins, suggesting his receiving role has permanently expanded beyond what oddsmakers initially projected. The 33.6% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't a recent fluke but a sustained market correction opportunity. However, the lack of split data creates some uncertainty about game-script dependency. If Miami builds large leads, Mostert's receiving usage could theoretically decrease, though his integral role in their quick-strike passing attack suggests he remains involved regardless of game flow.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% over rate and 5.5-yard average differential represent a clear market inefficiency, but the lack of situational splits prevents high confidence. Target this prop when Miami faces competitive games or strong rushing defenses that force more passing situations. The main risk is blowout scenarios where Mostert's role shifts purely to clock management, though his screen-game involvement provides some floor protection.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 13.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 34.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 32.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 11.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Raheem Mostert's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mostert has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% over rate), averaging 12.7 yards per game against typical lines around 7.2 yards, creating a profitable +5.5 yard differential for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Mostert's receiving yards props. The 70% over rate, five-game over streak, and 33.6% ROI on overs indicate a clear market inefficiency where books consistently undervalue his pass-catching role in Miami's offense.
What's Raheem Mostert's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Mostert averages 12.7 receiving yards over his last 10 games, significantly outpacing the typical line of 7.2 yards. This 5.5-yard differential represents substantial value for over bettors in what appears to be a sustained trend.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mostert receiving yards overs in competitive games or when Miami faces strong run defenses that force more passing situations. His integral role in screen packages provides consistency, making most game scripts favorable for over bets.