Raheem Mostert's receiving yards props present a compelling over opportunity with an 11-7 record (61.1%) and a massive +4.8 yard differential above the typical 9.89 line. The 16.7% ROI on overs, combined with a current 5-game over streak, signals consistent market mispricing. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The market consistently undervalues Raheem Mostert's receiving contributions, creating a sustainable edge that persists across 18 games of data. Mostert's 14.72 yard average represents a 48.6% premium over the standard line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Miami's offensive evolution under Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins' system frequently utilizes running backs as safety valves and motion receivers, particularly when Tua Tagovailoa faces pressure or when trailing in games. Mostert's versatility as both a runner and receiver makes him a consistent target, especially in obvious passing situations where his speed creates mismatches against linebackers. The 5-game over streak indicates recent form aligns with the broader trend, though regression risk exists given the small sample nature of receiving props. The -25.8% under ROI demonstrates how consistently wrong the market has been, but also highlights the danger of chasing a trend that could correct suddenly. Miami's pace-heavy offense and frequent red zone struggles often lead to additional passing attempts, benefiting Mostert's receiving opportunities. However, injury concerns and potential game script variations where Miami controls games early could limit his passing game involvement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 61.1% hit rate combined with the substantial +4.8 yard edge over market lines creates legitimate value, particularly when Mostert is healthy and Miami faces competitive games. The ideal conditions involve close games or situations where Miami trails, forcing more passing attempts. The primary risk is regression to the mean and potential injury concerns that could limit his snap count or effectiveness in the receiving game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 13.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 34.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 32.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 11.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 6.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 14.5 | 36.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Raheem Mostert's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Raheem Mostert's receiving yards props show an 11-7 over/under record across 18 games (61.1% overs), with overs generating a positive 16.7% ROI while unders produce a -25.8% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards all games?
Bet over on Raheem Mostert receiving yards props. The consistent 61.1% over rate and +4.8 yard differential above typical lines indicate the market undervalues his receiving contributions in Miami's system.
What's Raheem Mostert's average Receiving Yards all games?
Raheem Mostert averages 14.72 receiving yards per game against typical prop lines of 9.89 yards, creating a significant +4.8 yard edge that represents nearly 50% more production than the market expects.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Raheem Mostert receiving yards overs in competitive games where Miami may trail or face pressure to throw more. His current 5-game over streak suggests optimal recent conditions for his receiving usage.