Rachaad White's reception props show a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record over his last 10 games, but the 3.4 average significantly outpaces the typical 2.8 line by 0.6 receptions per game. Despite the even split, this consistent production edge suggests value exists on overs when the number stays reasonable.
Expert Analysis
The fascinating aspect of White's reception data isn't the 50% over rate—it's the sustained production above market expectations. Averaging 3.4 receptions against a 2.8 line represents meaningful value that books haven't fully adjusted for. This differential suggests Tampa Bay's offensive system consistently creates more receiving opportunities for White than oddsmakers anticipate. The balanced 5-5 record masks the underlying trend: even his 'under' games likely came close to the number, while his overs provided solid cushion. White's role as Tampa Bay's primary pass-catching back has stabilized, making him a fixture in short-yardage and checkdown situations. The longest under streak of three games indicates temporary regression rather than systematic change, while the recent over suggests he's back on track. With no significant splits data showing weakness in specific conditions, White's reception floor appears reliable. The key concern is whether books will adjust lines upward, potentially erasing this edge. However, the consistency of his 3.4 average suggests his role remains integral to Tampa Bay's offensive approach, making him a reliable target regardless of game script.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.6 reception differential above the typical line creates consistent value despite the even record. White's established role in Tampa Bay's passing attack provides a reliable floor, and his recent over suggests positive momentum. The main risk is line adjustment, so strike when numbers stay at 2.5 or below for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rachaad White's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
White has gone 5-5-0 on reception overs in his last 10 games, a perfectly even split. However, he's averaged 3.4 receptions per game, consistently outperforming the typical 2.8 line despite the balanced record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rachaad White Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on White's reception props. The 3.4 average significantly exceeds the usual 2.8 line, creating consistent value. His role as Tampa Bay's pass-catching back provides a reliable floor for reception totals.
What's Rachaad White's average Receptions last 10 games?
White averages 3.4 receptions over his last 10 games, which is 0.6 receptions above the typical 2.8 line. This consistent overperformance suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his reliable receiving role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target White reception overs when the line stays at 2.5 or below. His 3.4 average provides maximum edge at these numbers. Avoid when books adjust to 3.5+, as the value disappears.