Patrick Mahomes has demolished rushing yards overs in home games, posting a dominant 13-6 record (68.4% hit rate) with a massive +6.0 yard differential above the typical line. This 30.6% ROI represents one of the strongest quarterback rushing trends in the market, making overs the clear play at Arrowhead Stadium.
Expert Analysis
Mahomes transforms into a more aggressive runner at Arrowhead Stadium, where the familiar turf and crowd energy create optimal conditions for his dual-threat ability to flourish. The 27.16 yard average versus a 21.18 typical line reveals consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers who haven't fully adjusted to his enhanced mobility at home. Kansas City's offensive scheme becomes more creative in familiar surroundings, with Andy Reid deploying designed runs and RPOs that maximize Mahomes's rushing upside. The quarterback's comfort level at home translates to better pocket presence and more calculated scrambles, turning potential sacks into positive rushing yards. Weather factors at Arrowhead, particularly in late-season games, often favor a more balanced offensive attack that increases Mahomes's ground contributions. The trend's persistence across 19 games suggests structural advantages rather than random variance, though the recent streak of just one over indicates potential market adjustment. The lack of recent regression despite the strong historical performance suggests this edge remains exploitable, particularly when books continue setting lines below his demonstrated home rushing floor.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 68.4% hit rate and +6.0 differential create a clear mathematical edge, but market awareness may be increasing given the trend's visibility. Target overs when lines sit at 21 yards or below, especially in primetime home games where Mahomes tends to be most aggressive. The primary risk is oddsmaker adjustment, but until lines consistently reflect his 27+ yard home average, value remains on overs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 43.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 24.5 | 14.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 16.5 | 4.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 19.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 17.5 | 22.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 19.5 | 29.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 19.5 | 3.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 25.5 | 66.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 25.5 | 41.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 21.5 | 2.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 17.5 | 53.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 8.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 24.5 | 38.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 24.5 | 24.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Mahomes's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Patrick Mahomes has gone over his rushing yards prop in 13 of 19 home games (68.4% rate) since 2023, generating a strong +30.6% ROI for over bettors with consistent line-beating performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards home games?
Bet over on Mahomes rushing yards at home. The 68.4% hit rate and +6.0 average differential above typical lines create a clear mathematical edge that oddsmakers haven't fully corrected.
What's Patrick Mahomes's average Rushing Yards home games?
Mahomes averages 27.16 rushing yards in home games compared to typical lines around 21.18 yards, creating a consistent 6-yard advantage that drives the strong over performance and betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mahomes rushing overs in primetime home games when lines are set at 21 yards or below. Weather games and playoff atmospheres at Arrowhead typically enhance his rushing involvement significantly.