Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns props at home have been brutally consistent unders, hitting just 28.6% of overs across 21 games with a devastating -45.5% ROI. Currently riding six straight unders with an average of 1.52 touchdowns against 1.74 lines. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The Mahomes home passing touchdown trend reveals a systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers who haven't adjusted to Kansas City's evolved offensive identity. At Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs operate with enhanced ball control and shorter fields due to crowd noise disrupting opposing offenses, leading to more field goals than explosive touchdown drives. Mahomes averages 1.52 passing touchdowns at home versus 1.74 in road environments, a significant 0.22 touchdown gap that oddsmakers consistently ignore. The current six-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects Kansas City's championship-level game management at home where they control tempo and rely on their defense to create short fields. The -0.2 differential between Mahomes' actual production and betting lines represents pure value, especially considering the Chiefs' tendency to lean on Travis Kelce and running backs in red zone situations at home. While regression concerns exist given Mahomes' elite talent, the underlying factors driving this trend—home crowd impact, conservative game scripts, and systematic line inflation—remain structurally intact. The 36.4% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 28.6% over rate and current six-game under streak reflect genuine structural advantages rather than fluky variance. Mahomes faces consistently inflated lines at home where Kansas City's methodical approach limits explosive passing touchdown opportunities. Primary risk is a shootout scenario, but Arrowhead's defensive advantages make this less likely than oddsmakers price.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Mahomes's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Mahomes has gone over his passing touchdowns prop just 6 times in 21 home games (28.6% rate) with an average of 1.52 touchdowns against typical lines of 1.74, creating a -0.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs home games?
Bet under on Mahomes passing touchdowns at home. The 36.4% ROI on unders and current six-game streak reflect systematic line inflation rather than temporary variance in his home performances.
What's Patrick Mahomes's average Passing TDs home games?
Mahomes averages 1.52 passing touchdowns in home games, significantly below the typical 1.74 line. This 0.22 touchdown gap represents consistent value for under bettors at Arrowhead Stadium.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mahomes passing touchdown unders in primetime home games where Kansas City emphasizes ball control. Avoid during early season games when offensive rhythm is still developing.