Noah Gray's receiving yards show marginal over value in home games with an 8-7 over record (53.3%) and positive 0.9-yard differential above the line. The +1.8% ROI on overs suggests slight edge, though the sample reveals inconsistency with streaky performance patterns.
Expert Analysis
Gray's home receiving yards trend reflects the Chiefs' tactical deployment of their third tight end in familiar Arrowhead conditions. The 16.53-yard average against a 15.63 line indicates consistent modest production that slightly exceeds market expectations. Kansas City's offensive rhythm at home creates more opportunities for Gray in specific packages, particularly when the Chiefs control game flow and utilize multiple tight end sets. The streaky nature of his production, evidenced by a longest over streak of five games versus just two consecutive unders, suggests his usage comes in waves based on game script and opponent coverage. While the overall over rate sits just above coin-flip territory, the positive yardage differential indicates the market may consistently undervalue Gray's home role. However, the modest sample size and Gray's limited target share in an elite passing offense create volatility. His production heavily depends on Travis Kelce's health and the game situation, making him more of a complementary piece than a consistent fantasy contributor. The home field advantage appears genuine but marginal, likely tied to improved offensive line protection and crowd noise affecting opposing defenses' communication in coverage packages involving multiple tight ends.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gray's home splits show consistent value with the 0.9-yard edge over market lines, supported by Kansas City's superior offensive execution at Arrowhead. Target overs when Kelce is healthy and the Chiefs are favored, as positive game scripts increase Gray's snap count in multi-tight end packages. Primary risk remains his boom-bust nature and limited target ceiling in a crowded receiving corps.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 23.5 | 10.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 20.5 | 29.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 12.5 | 37.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 11.5 | 22.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 9.5 | 20.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 11.5 | 17.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 34.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 8.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Noah Gray's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Noah Gray has gone over his receiving yards prop in 8 of 15 home games (53.3% rate) with an 8-7 overall record. He averages 16.53 yards at home against typical lines of 15.63 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Noah Gray Receiving Yards home games?
Lean over on Gray's home receiving yards props. The +0.9 yard differential and +1.8% ROI on overs indicates consistent market undervaluation, though bet selectively due to his limited target share and game script dependency.
What's Noah Gray's average Receiving Yards home games?
Gray averages 16.53 receiving yards in home games, which is 0.9 yards above the typical line of 15.63. This positive differential has generated modest but consistent value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Gray's receiving yards overs at home when Kansas City is favored and Kelce is healthy. These conditions maximize his snaps in multi-TE packages while ensuring positive game scripts that increase passing volume.