Noah Gray's receiving yards props show modest over value with a 54.8% hit rate (17-14-0) and positive 6.3-yard differential versus the typical 15.24 line. The +4.7% ROI on overs suggests sustainable edge despite limited sample volatility. Lean over in favorable game scripts.
Expert Analysis
Gray's receiving production consistently exceeds modest market expectations, averaging 21.55 yards against lines typically set around 15.24. This 6.3-yard cushion reflects the market's conservative approach to backup tight ends, even in Kansas City's pass-heavy offense. The Chiefs' offensive system creates natural upside for secondary receivers when Travis Kelce draws coverage or when game flow demands additional passing volume. Gray's role as a reliable safety valve becomes more valuable in negative game scripts or when Kansas City needs to sustain drives through the air. The 54.8% over rate demonstrates consistent outperformance rather than boom-bust volatility, suggesting his floor is higher than oddsmakers typically price. However, the limited sample size and his secondary role create inherent variance risks. His production heavily depends on game script, Kelce's target share, and the Chiefs' red zone approach. The recent under streak indicates potential regression, but his season-long average suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his expanded involvement in Kansas City's passing attack.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gray's 6.3-yard average differential and consistent 54.8% over rate indicate sustainable value against conservative lines. Target overs when Kansas City faces high-scoring opponents or plays from behind, maximizing passing volume. Main risk is Kelce-heavy game scripts limiting Gray's opportunities in blowout victories.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 2.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 18.5 | 6.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 23.5 | 10.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 21.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 17.5 | 66.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 23.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 24.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 15.5 | 66.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 20.5 | 29.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 40.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Noah Gray props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Noah Gray's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Gray's receiving yards props show a 17-14-0 over/under record (54.8% overs) across 31 games from September 2023 to February 2025, with overs generating +4.7% ROI compared to -13.8% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Noah Gray Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on Gray's receiving yards props. His 21.55 average significantly exceeds typical 15.24 lines, creating consistent value. Target overs in pass-heavy game scripts when Kansas City needs sustained offensive drives.
What's Noah Gray's average Receiving Yards all games?
Gray averages 21.55 receiving yards per game against typical lines of 15.24, creating a favorable 6.3-yard differential. This consistent outperformance suggests the market undervalues his role in Kansas City's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gray's receiving yards overs when Kansas City faces high-scoring opponents or plays from behind, maximizing passing volume. Avoid in expected blowout victories where Kelce dominates targets and the Chiefs control clock.