Nick Chubb's rushing yards props have hit the over in exactly 50% of his last 10 games, with his 50.2-yard average falling 5.2 yards short of typical lines around 55.4. The negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing with minimal edge available.
Expert Analysis
The 50-50 split on Chubb's rushing yards overs reflects a player caught between his elite talent and situational constraints that have defined Cleveland's recent offensive struggles. His 50.2-yard average versus 55.4-yard lines reveals books are still pricing in his ceiling rather than his current floor, creating a consistent but modest under bias. The symmetrical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the market has found equilibrium, with oddsmakers accurately capturing his reduced role and Cleveland's offensive limitations. Chubb's alternating two-game streaks suggest game script dependency rather than sustainable momentum in either direction. Without clear splits data showing favorable matchup spots, this trend appears driven by Cleveland's inconsistent offensive line play and conservative game management rather than any decline in Chubb's individual ability. The Browns' tendency to abandon the run when trailing has capped his volume in competitive games, while blowout wins remain rare enough that positive game scripts haven't consistently elevated his numbers. This creates a narrow band where Chubb operates effectively but rarely explodes for the ceiling performances that justify inflated lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 5.2-yard negative differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Chubb's current role within Cleveland's offense. Target unders when the Browns face quality defenses or in games with high totals where negative game script is likely. The main risk is a return to Cleveland's ground-heavy identity if they commit to establishing the run early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 38.5 | 41.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 38.5 | 48.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 56.5 | 21.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 51.5 | 59.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 66.5 | 50.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 53.5 | 39.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 47.5 | 52.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 39.5 | 22.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 81.5 | 64.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 80.5 | 106.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Chubb's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Nick Chubb has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games for a 50% hit rate. His 5-5-0 record shows no clear directional bias, with both overs and unders producing identical -4.5% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Chubb Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Nick Chubb rushing yards props. His 50.2-yard average consistently falls short of typical 55+ yard lines, creating modest but consistent under value despite the even 5-5 over/under record in recent games.
What's Nick Chubb's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Nick Chubb averages 50.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which falls 5.2 yards below the typical line of 55.4 yards. This negative differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chubb rushing yards unders when Cleveland faces strong run defenses or in games with high point totals where negative game script is likely. Avoid betting when the Browns are favored by large margins.