Nelson Agholor has hit the over in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5-0 record), averaging 17.6 receiving yards against a 13.6-yard line for a +4.0 differential. Despite the positive yardage gap, both sides show identical -4.5% ROI, creating a neutral betting environment with slight lean over based on production exceeding expectations.
Expert Analysis
The Ravens' receiving corps hierarchy places Agholor in a volatile role that explains his inconsistent prop performance. His 17.6-yard average significantly outpacing the 13.6-yard line suggests oddsmakers are pricing him as a deep bench option, but Agholor's actual usage patterns tell a different story. The 50% hit rate indicates he's caught between roles - not reliable enough for consistent volume but capable of explosive games that skew his average upward. Baltimore's offensive philosophy under Todd Monken emphasizes vertical passing concepts that can benefit Agholor when Mark Andrews or Rashod Bateman draw coverage, but his target share remains game-script dependent. The identical -4.5% ROI on both sides reveals efficient market pricing despite the yardage differential, suggesting the books have adjusted to his boom-or-bust nature. His current one-game under streak follows a pattern of alternating hot and cold stretches, with his longest over streak reaching three games earlier in the sample. The lack of clear situational splits makes this prop particularly challenging to predict, as Agholor's production appears more tied to defensive coverages and in-game opportunities than external factors like opponent strength or game location.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +4.0 yardage differential indicates Agholor consistently outproduces his line when he does hit, and the 17.6 average suggests more upside than the modest 13.6 number implies. Baltimore's passing attack creates enough variance for boom games to offset the quiet performances. The main risk is his target inconsistency in a crowded receiving room, but the market appears to undervalue his ceiling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 18.5 | 25.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 16.5 | 36.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 17.5 | 20.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 16.5 | 25.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 56.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nelson Agholor's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Nelson Agholor has gone over his receiving yards prop in 5 of his last 10 games (50% hit rate) with a 5-5-0 record. Both over and under bets show identical -4.5% ROI, indicating efficient but breakeven market pricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Agholor's receiving yards props. His 17.6-yard average significantly exceeds the typical 13.6 line, suggesting the market undervalues his production ceiling in Baltimore's vertical passing attack despite inconsistent target volume.
What's Nelson Agholor's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Agholor averages 17.6 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to a 13.6-yard betting line, creating a positive 4.0-yard differential. This gap indicates he outproduces expectations when he does contribute meaningfully to the offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Agholor overs when Baltimore faces defenses that focus heavily on Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, creating opportunities in the vertical passing game. His boom-bust nature makes him ideal for contrarian plays in tournaments.