Nelson Agholor's receiving yards props present a perfectly balanced puzzle with an even 11-11 over/under record across 22 games. Despite averaging 18.09 yards against a 15.14 line for a positive 3.0 differential, both sides show identical -4.5% ROI, suggesting efficient market pricing. PASS on this prop without additional context.
Expert Analysis
Agholor's receiving yards props reveal a fascinating case study in market efficiency. The veteran receiver consistently outperforms his betting lines by an average of 3.0 yards per game, yet this edge hasn't translated into profitable betting opportunities due to the perfectly even split of outcomes. This suggests oddsmakers have struggled to find the sweet spot for his lines, potentially overcompensating in both directions. The 50.0% over rate indicates Agholor's role in Baltimore's offense creates volatile week-to-week production rather than consistent output. His veteran status and complementary role behind primary targets likely contributes to this boom-bust pattern, where game script and defensive coverage dictate whether he sees 5 targets or 1 target. The identical ROI on both sides is remarkably rare and indicates the market has achieved near-perfect balance through trial and error. Without additional context about matchups, target share trends, or injury situations, this prop represents a coin flip with efficient pricing that eliminates edge for sharp bettors.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 11-11 record combined with identical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing that eliminates betting edge. While Agholor averages 3.0 yards above his typical line, this hasn't translated to profitability due to volatile game-to-game variance. Without specific matchup advantages or situational factors, this prop offers no discernible value for disciplined bettors seeking positive expected value opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 18.5 | 25.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 16.5 | 36.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 17.5 | 20.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 16.5 | 25.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 56.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 16.5 | 6.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 16.5 | 39.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nelson Agholor's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Nelson Agholor has gone over his receiving yards prop in exactly 11 of 22 games (50.0%) across all situations. This perfectly even split with 11 unders demonstrates remarkable balance, though both sides have produced identical -4.5% ROI for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards all games?
PASS on Nelson Agholor receiving yards props without additional context. The perfectly balanced 11-11 record and identical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing. While he averages 3.0 yards above typical lines, this edge hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
What's Nelson Agholor's average Receiving Yards all games?
Nelson Agholor averages 18.09 receiving yards per game across all situations, compared to his typical betting line of 15.14 yards. This creates a positive 3.0 yard differential, showing he consistently outperforms expectations but with high volatility in individual game outcomes.
How reliable is this trend?
Without split data available, the best approach is avoiding Nelson Agholor receiving yards props entirely. The perfectly balanced historical record suggests waiting for specific matchup advantages, injury news, or significant line movement that creates clear value rather than betting this efficiently-priced prop.