Mike Williams has delivered exceptional under value with a 60% under rate over his last 10 games, generating +14.6% ROI for under bettors. His 2.0 reception average perfectly matches typical market lines, but the consistency of staying under creates a clear edge. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Mike Williams's reception prop presents a compelling under opportunity driven by his role limitations within Pittsburgh's offensive system. The 60% under rate across 10 games isn't coincidental—it reflects Williams operating as a complementary piece rather than a featured target. His 2.0 reception average aligning exactly with market expectations suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced involvement compared to his previous role. The streak data reveals telling patterns: Williams managed just one current over streak against six consecutive unders at one point, indicating systematic underperformance rather than random variance. This consistency suggests schematic limitations rather than temporary struggles. Pittsburgh's offensive philosophy appears to limit Williams's target share, creating sustainable under value. The +14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just about win rate—the betting market consistently overvalues his reception floor. Without significant injury concerns to other receivers or dramatic offensive changes, Williams's role constraints should persist. The perfect 2.0 average against 2.0 lines indicates a player consistently falling short of market expectations, creating a mathematical edge for disciplined under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with +14.6% ROI creates legitimate value, particularly when Williams faces typical 2.0+ reception lines. His role limitations within Pittsburgh's system appear sustainable, making this trend more than variance. Primary risk involves potential target increases if other receivers face injuries or Williams sees expanded red zone usage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Williams's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Mike Williams has gone under his receptions prop 60% of the time over his last 10 games, posting a 4-6 over/under record. This translates to 6 unders and 4 overs during this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Williams Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Mike Williams receptions props. The 60% under rate with +14.6% ROI demonstrates clear market inefficiency, while his role limitations in Pittsburgh's offense create sustainable value for under betting.
What's Mike Williams's average Receptions last 10 games?
Mike Williams averages exactly 2.0 receptions over his last 10 games, matching typical market lines perfectly. This zero differential suggests he consistently falls short of market expectations despite even average performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams under bets when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, particularly in games where Pittsburgh's game script favors balanced offensive attack rather than heavy passing volume requirements.