Mike Williams shows a modest 53.8% over rate (7-6-0) across 13 games with a solid +6.6 yard differential above the 30.5-yard line. The 37.08 yard average suggests consistent production despite limited volume expectations. Lean over with measured confidence.
Expert Analysis
Williams' receiving yards trend reveals a player consistently exceeding modest market expectations, averaging 37.08 yards against a 30.5-yard line that appears conservatively set. The 53.8% over rate might seem marginal, but the +6.6 yard differential tells a more compelling story about sustainable production. Pittsburgh's offensive evolution under different coordinators has created opportunities for Williams to contribute in varied roles, from deep threat to possession receiver. The 2.8% over ROI indicates profitable betting opportunities exist, while the harsh -11.9% under ROI suggests the market occasionally undervalues his floor. His ability to produce across different game scripts—whether Pittsburgh is trailing and throwing or controlling games with balanced attacks—provides consistency that the betting line hasn't fully captured. The current two-game over streak aligns with his historical pattern of clustering productive performances. However, Williams' injury history and the Steelers' run-heavy tendencies in certain matchups present legitimate concerns for over bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams consistently outperforms the conservative 30.5-yard line, and his 37.08-yard average provides a meaningful edge. Target overs when Pittsburgh faces pass-funnel defenses or projected negative game scripts that increase passing volume. The main risk remains Pittsburgh's commitment to establishing the run in favorable game situations, which can limit Williams' opportunities despite his efficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 10.5 | 37.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 16.5 | 24.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 15.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 22.5 | 6.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 26.5 | 0.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 31.5 | 25.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 30.5 | 67.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 24.5 | 34.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 63.5 | 121.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 60.5 | 83.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 60.5 | 45.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Williams's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Mike Williams has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of 13 games (53.8%) with 6 unders. His average of 37.08 yards consistently beats the typical 30.5-yard line by 6.6 yards per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Williams Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on Mike Williams receiving yards props. His 37.08-yard average provides a solid edge over the 30.5-yard line, and the +2.8% over ROI shows profitable opportunities despite the modest 53.8% hit rate.
What's Mike Williams's average Receiving Yards all games?
Mike Williams averages 37.08 receiving yards per game, which is 6.6 yards above the standard 30.5-yard prop line. This consistent differential suggests the market undervalues his reliable production floor across different game situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mike Williams receiving yards overs when Pittsburgh faces pass-heavy defensive schemes or trails early, forcing more passing volume. Avoid when the Steelers are heavy favorites likely to control games through their ground attack.