Mike Evans has hit the over on receiving yards at a 52.9% clip across 34 games, averaging 74.88 yards against a 65.94 line for a solid +8.9 differential. The modest over rate combined with strong average performance suggests value exists on overs in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Mike Evans's receiving yards performance reveals a fascinating dynamic where modest over frequency masks consistent value creation. His 52.9% over rate appears pedestrian, but the +8.9 yard differential between his 74.88 average and the 65.94 line tells a different story. This suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue Evans's floor, likely due to his boom-bust reputation overshadowing his reliable target share in Tampa Bay's passing attack. The +1.1% ROI on overs versus -10.2% on unders confirms this edge exists, though the sample size demands respect. Evans benefits from Tampa Bay's pass-heavy approach and his red zone usage, factors that create consistent yardage opportunities even in lower-scoring affairs. However, the tight over percentage indicates this isn't a blindly profitable trend. Evans's age and injury history create volatility that oddsmakers may be pricing more accurately in recent seasons. The key lies in identifying when his 65.94 average line drops below his true expectation, particularly in games where Tampa Bay projects to throw frequently or faces defenses vulnerable to his skill set.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +8.9 yard differential reveals consistent line value despite the modest 52.9% over rate. Target Evans overs when his line sits below 70 yards, especially against defenses allowing high completion rates to outside receivers. The main risk is his boom-bust nature creating extended cold stretches that can quickly erode bankroll despite long-term profitability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 76.5 | 92.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 99.5 | 89.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 85.5 | 97.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 81.5 | 69.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 159.0 | +90.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 74.5 | 69.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 64.5 | 118.0 | +53.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 56.5 | 68.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 54.5 | 25.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 55.5 | 34.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 60.5 | 62.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 64.5 | 94.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 65.5 | 17.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 69.5 | 42.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 69.5 | 61.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Evans's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Mike Evans has gone over his receiving yards prop in 18 of 34 games (52.9%) while averaging 74.88 yards against a typical line of 65.94 yards, creating a +8.9 yard differential that suggests consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Evans Receiving Yards all games?
Lean toward betting Mike Evans receiving yards overs, particularly when his line drops below 70 yards. The +8.9 yard differential and positive ROI on overs indicate consistent value despite the modest 52.9% hit rate.
What's Mike Evans's average Receiving Yards all games?
Mike Evans averages 74.88 receiving yards across all games, which runs 8.9 yards above his typical prop line of 65.94 yards. This differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production floor.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mike Evans receiving yards overs when his line sits below 70 yards, especially against defenses allowing high completion rates. Avoid during injury concerns or when Tampa Bay faces elite pass defenses that limit big-play opportunities.