Michael Mayer's reception props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 33.3% of overs across 15 games with a -36.4% ROI on the over side. The second-year tight end averages exactly 2.0 receptions against a typical 2.03 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Michael Mayer's reception prop represents one of the more reliable under plays in the tight end market, driven by Las Vegas's offensive philosophy and his role within it. The Raiders have consistently deployed Mayer as more of a blocking specialist than a primary receiving threat, a trend that began in his rookie season and has persisted through coaching changes. His 2.0 reception average sits perfectly at market expectations, but the consistency of hitting under has created exploitable value. The 27.3% ROI on unders isn't just luck—it reflects a fundamental disconnect between public perception of a former Notre Dame star and his actual NFL usage. Mayer's snap counts often fluctuate based on game script, and when the Raiders fall behind, they tend to utilize faster receivers rather than increasing his target share. The current two-game under streak aligns with this pattern, as Las Vegas has faced negative game scripts requiring more explosive passing options. Most concerning for over bettors is that even in favorable matchups against poor tight end defenses, Mayer rarely exceeds three receptions, suggesting his ceiling is artificially capped by offensive design rather than defensive pressure.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Michael Mayer's 33.3% over rate and consistent 2.0 reception average create a clear mathematical edge for under bettors. The Raiders' offensive scheme limits his target ceiling regardless of game script, making this one of the more predictable tight end props. Primary risk comes from potential role expansion if injuries hit the receiver corps, but current usage patterns strongly favor the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Mayer's Receptions prop record all games?
Michael Mayer has gone under his receptions prop in 10 of 15 games (66.7% under rate) with a 5-10-0 over/under record. His props have delivered a strong 27.3% ROI for under bettors while losing -36.4% for over backers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Mayer Receptions all games?
Bet under on Michael Mayer's receptions props. His 33.3% over rate and 2.0 reception average create consistent value on unders, supported by Las Vegas's blocking-heavy usage of their second-year tight end.
What's Michael Mayer's average Receptions all games?
Michael Mayer averages exactly 2.0 receptions per game against typical lines of 2.03, creating a minimal -0.03 differential. This tight margin actually favors unders given his 66.7% under hit rate across 15 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Michael Mayer under props when the Raiders face negative game scripts or strong run defenses. His blocking role increases in these situations, while his target share rarely expands even when trailing significantly.