Matthew Stafford's rushing yards prop presents a clear fade opportunity with just 33.3% overs across 12 games, producing a devastating -36.4% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 3.33 yards against a typical 1.5 line, the under has cashed 67% of the time with strong +27.3% returns.
Expert Analysis
Matthew Stafford's rushing yards under represents one of the most reliable quarterback prop trends in the market, driven by his pocket-passing style and the Rams' offensive philosophy. At 36 years old, Stafford has evolved into a pure pocket quarterback who rarely scrambles, preferring to step up in the pocket or throw the ball away under pressure rather than tuck and run. The Rams' offensive system under Sean McVay emphasizes quick reads and rhythm passing, minimizing designed quarterback runs or scramble situations that inflate rushing totals. Even when Stafford does move, he's more likely to slide short of the sticks than fight for extra yards, a smart veteran approach that protects his aging body. The 8-game under streak highlights this consistency, as Stafford's rushing attempts often come from kneel-downs in victory formation rather than meaningful scrambles. His 3.33-yard average, while above the typical 1.5 line, is misleading because it includes a few outlier performances that skew the mean upward. The median performance likely sits closer to the betting line, making the under the mathematically sound play. This trend shows no signs of regression as Stafford continues aging and the Rams maintain their pass-heavy approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Stafford's pocket-passing style and age make him one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the league, creating sustainable value on rushing yards unders. The 67% under rate with +27.3% ROI demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as Stafford rarely generates meaningful rushing yards outside of kneel-downs and minimal scrambles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 0.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 2.5 | -1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 14.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 17.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matthew Stafford's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Matthew Stafford has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 4 of 12 games (33.3%) this season, with 8 unders producing a strong +27.3% ROI while overs have lost -36.4% for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Matthew Stafford's rushing yards props. His pocket-passing style and 67% under rate with +27.3% ROI make this one of the most reliable quarterback prop fades in the market.
What's Matthew Stafford's average Rushing Yards all games?
Matthew Stafford averages 3.33 rushing yards per game, which sits 1.8 yards above the typical 1.5 line. However, this average is skewed by outliers, as he goes under 67% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stafford rushing yards unders when the line is 1.5 or higher, especially in games where the Rams are expected to pass frequently or when facing pressure that forces quick decisions rather than scrambles.