Matthew Stafford's passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.9% overs across 32 games with a -10.5% ROI on overs versus +1.4% on unders. His 1.53 average barely exceeds the 1.47 line, creating consistent value on the under despite recent variance.
Expert Analysis
Stafford's touchdown production reveals a systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers, with his 15-17 over/under record masking deeper inefficiencies. The veteran quarterback's 1.53 average represents marginal upside against typical lines, but the -10.5% ROI on overs tells the real story of inflated expectations. This trend stems from Stafford's reputation as a gunslinger conflicting with the Rams' evolving offensive identity, which increasingly emphasizes ball control and field position over explosive passing plays. The 0.06 differential between his average and the line appears minimal, but in touchdown props where whole numbers dominate, this gap creates consistent betting value. Stafford's recent two-game over streak shouldn't obscure the broader pattern—his longest over streak reached six games while under streaks peaked at five, indicating natural variance rather than fundamental shifts. The absence of meaningful split advantages suggests this edge persists across various game situations, making it particularly reliable. Regression toward his established baseline becomes increasingly likely as sample size grows, especially given the Rams' tendency to lean on their ground game in scoring positions. Bettors should recognize that Stafford's touchdown props often reflect past glory rather than current offensive reality, where efficiency trumps volume in Sean McVay's system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Stafford's sub-47% over rate and negative ROI on overs create consistent value, though the small sample size and recent over streak warrant caution. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where game script favors ball control. The primary risk involves playoff intensity potentially unlocking higher touchdown variance than regular season data suggests.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matthew Stafford's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Stafford's passing touchdown props show a 15-17 over/under record across 32 games, hitting overs just 46.9% of the time. This translates to a -10.5% ROI for over bettors while under bettors enjoy a positive 1.4% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matthew Stafford Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Stafford's passing touchdowns. His 46.9% over rate and negative ROI on overs create consistent value, especially when lines reach 1.5 or higher. The data strongly favors under betting despite recent variance.
What's Matthew Stafford's average Passing TDs all games?
Stafford averages 1.53 passing touchdowns per game against typical lines of 1.47, creating a modest 0.06 edge. While seemingly small, this differential consistently favors under betting given his sub-47% over rate across the sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stafford touchdown unders when lines reach 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where the Rams project to control pace and clock. Avoid betting after extended under streaks when variance correction becomes more likely.