Mark Andrews has gone under his receptions total in 53.3% of home games, posting a 7-8-0 over/under record with a -10.9% ROI on overs. His 3.6 average matches the typical line almost perfectly, creating a marginal lean toward the under based on the negative over ROI.
Expert Analysis
Mark Andrews's home reception totals reveal a fascinating case study in market efficiency meeting slight systemic bias. His 3.6 average sits virtually dead-even with the standard 3.63 line, yet the over has returned -10.9% ROI while the under shows positive 1.8% returns across 15 games. This suggests books may be pricing Andrews slightly too high at home, possibly overvaluing his red zone presence in familiar territory. The tight differential indicates this isn't about dramatic performance swings but rather subtle market inefficiency. Andrews's role as Baltimore's primary receiving threat remains consistent regardless of venue, but the data hints that expectations run marginally high in home settings. The current one-game under streak follows a four-game over run, showing the natural variance inherent in tight-line props. With no dramatic splits or contextual factors driving this trend, it appears to be pure market dynamics where the under provides slightly better value over time. The key insight here isn't that Andrews performs poorly at home, but that the market consistently prices him just a hair too high, creating sustainable under value for disciplined bettors willing to accept narrow margins.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The positive 1.8% under ROI combined with the 53.3% under hit rate creates a slight but measurable edge against an efficient market. This isn't a strong trend play but rather a value-based approach exploiting minor market inefficiency. Best deployed when the line sits at 3.5 or higher, particularly in games where Andrews faces increased red zone competition from other Ravens weapons.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Andrews's Receptions prop record home games?
Mark Andrews has posted a 7-8-0 over/under record on receptions props in home games, hitting the under 53.3% of the time across 15 games from September 2023 through January 2025.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Andrews Receptions home games?
Lean toward the under on Mark Andrews receptions at home. The under has generated positive 1.8% ROI while overs show -10.9% returns, indicating consistent slight overvaluation by the market.
What's Mark Andrews's average Receptions home games?
Mark Andrews averages 3.6 receptions per home game compared to his typical line of 3.63, creating a minimal but consistent 0.03 reception gap favoring under bettors over the long term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mark Andrews under bets when the home line reaches 3.5 or higher, especially in games with multiple Ravens red zone threats that could limit his target concentration.