Mark Andrews shows a compelling edge in divisional games, hitting the over at a 63.6% clip (7-4-0 record) with a +0.4 reception differential above typical lines. The 21.5% ROI on overs reflects consistent target volume against familiar AFC North defenses. This presents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Andrews' divisional dominance stems from Baltimore's strategic approach against AFC North rivals, where Lamar Jackson relies heavily on his proven tight end connection in critical matchups. The +0.4 reception differential above standard lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Andrews' elevated role in these heated rivalries. Divisional games typically feature more conservative defensive schemes that funnel targets to reliable underneath options, playing directly into Andrews' wheelhouse as Jackson's security blanket. The 63.6% over rate across 11 games provides meaningful sample size, while the 21.5% ROI demonstrates sustainable profitability rather than variance-driven results. However, Andrews' injury history creates volatility, and his recent streak of one under suggests potential regression. The trend's persistence likely reflects Baltimore's offensive identity in divisional play, where ball control and methodical drives often replace explosive downfield attacks. Books may be slow to adjust because Andrews' overall season numbers don't always capture his divisional spike, creating a recurring edge for sharp bettors who recognize this split.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Andrews' 63.6% over rate in divisional games reflects a legitimate schematic edge rather than random variance, supported by Baltimore's reliance on underneath targets against familiar AFC North defenses. Target this prop when facing Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, or Cleveland, especially in primetime spots where Jackson gravitates toward his most trusted receiver. Primary risk remains Andrews' injury concerns and potential game script variations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Andrews's Receptions prop record divisional games?
Andrews has gone over his receptions prop in 7 of 11 divisional games (63.6%), generating a strong 21.5% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have lost 30.6% of their investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Andrews Receptions divisional games?
Bet the over on Andrews' receptions in divisional games. His 63.6% over rate and +0.4 average differential above lines reflects a legitimate schematic edge against AFC North defenses that consistently undervalue his target share.
What's Mark Andrews's average Receptions divisional games?
Andrews averages 3.82 receptions per divisional game compared to typical lines around 3.41, creating a consistent +0.4 differential that has translated to profitable over betting across an 11-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrews' reception overs specifically in divisional matchups against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. These games feature conservative defensive schemes that funnel targets to reliable underneath options, maximizing his catch opportunities in Baltimore's offensive game plan.