Mark Andrews shows consistent over value in conference games with a 57.1% over rate (12-9-0 record) and averages 42.57 yards against 40.12 lines. The +2.5 yard differential combined with +9.1% ROI over 21 games creates a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Andrews' conference game success stems from Baltimore's divisional familiarity breeding offensive rhythm. The Ravens face AFC North defenses twice yearly, allowing Lamar Jackson and Andrews to exploit known defensive tendencies and coverage weaknesses. The +2.5 yard differential suggests books consistently undervalue Andrews in these spots, possibly accounting for tougher divisional matchups without recognizing his historical success. The 57.1% over rate across 21 games provides meaningful sample size, while the +9.1% ROI demonstrates genuine market inefficiency rather than variance. Andrews benefits from increased target share when Baltimore needs reliable possession receivers against familiar opponents. Conference games often feature higher-scoring affairs as teams know each other's tendencies, creating more passing volume. The balanced 4-game streaks in both directions indicate this isn't purely momentum-based but reflects genuine matchup dynamics. However, the -18.2% under ROI shows books have adjusted somewhat, making line shopping crucial. Andrews' role as Jackson's primary safety valve becomes amplified in division games where defensive coordinators can't surprise with exotic looks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Andrews' 57.1% conference over rate and +2.5 yard differential above market lines creates legitimate value, particularly when Baltimore faces division rivals who can't disguise coverages. Target overs when Andrews is healthy and facing secondary defenses he's seen multiple times. Main risk is potential target competition if Baltimore's receiving corps stays healthy, but Andrews' safety valve role with Jackson makes him matchup-proof in familiar conference spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 42.5 | 61.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 45.5 | 27.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 33.5 | 54.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 36.5 | 68.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 35.5 | 37.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 32.5 | 44.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 22.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 43.5 | 68.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 30.5 | 26.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 28.5 | 36.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 24.5 | 55.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 29.5 | 0.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 40.5 | 51.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 47.5 | 14.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 32.5 | 15.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Andrews's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Andrews posts a 12-9-0 over/under record (57.1%) in conference games across 21 contests since September 2023. He averages 42.57 receiving yards against 40.12 average lines, creating a +2.5 yard edge with +9.1% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Andrews Receiving Yards conference games?
Lean over on Andrews' receiving yards in conference games. The 57.1% over rate and +2.5 yard differential above market lines creates value, especially against divisional opponents where Baltimore's familiarity with defensive schemes benefits the Jackson-Andrews connection.
What's Mark Andrews's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Andrews averages 42.57 receiving yards in conference games, which runs 2.5 yards above his typical 40.12 prop lines. This consistent differential across 21 games suggests books undervalue his production against familiar AFC opponents he faces regularly.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrews overs in division games when he's healthy and facing secondary defenses Baltimore has seen multiple times. Conference matchups allow Jackson and Andrews to exploit known coverage weaknesses, making these spots ideal for over bets.