Mac Jones delivers exceptional rushing value with a 6-5-0 over record (54.5%) and a massive +5.6 yard differential above his typical 7.32 rushing yards line. His 12.91 average suggests consistent quarterback scrambling that books haven't properly adjusted for. Lean over on Mac Jones rushing props.
Expert Analysis
Mac Jones has transformed into an unexpectedly mobile quarterback, averaging 12.91 rushing yards against lines typically set around 7.32 yards. This 76% premium over market expectations stems from Jacksonville's offensive scheme that creates natural scrambling opportunities and Jones's improved pocket awareness leading to designed rollouts. The 54.5% over rate with a +4.1% ROI demonstrates sustainable value, not random variance. Jones's rushing production appears tied to game script neutrality—he's not padding stats in blowouts but rather finding yards through necessary mobility in competitive games. The consistency is remarkable: even his recent struggles haven't eliminated the rushing element from his game. Books seem anchored to his New England Patriots profile where he was more of a pure pocket passer. Jacksonville's offensive coordinator has clearly emphasized Jones's athleticism, creating a systematic edge. The lack of extreme streaks (longest over streak just 2 games) suggests this isn't boom-bust variance but steady production. However, the sample size of 11 games demands caution, and any shift toward more conservative pocket passing could quickly erode this edge. Weather conditions and game script will remain crucial variables.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Mac Jones's 12.91 rushing average against 7.32 yard lines represents legitimate schematic value that books haven't fully recognized. The 54.5% over rate with positive ROI suggests sustainable edge rather than luck. Target overs in competitive games where scrambling becomes necessary, but avoid in potential blowouts where Jacksonville might limit Jones's mobility to protect their quarterback.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 22.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 29.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 25.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 25.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mac Jones's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Mac Jones has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of 11 games (54.5%) with a 6-5-0 overall record. His consistency has generated a positive +4.1% ROI on over bets while under bets have lost -13.2%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mac Jones Rushing Yards all games?
Bet over on Mac Jones rushing yards props. His 12.91 average significantly exceeds typical 7.32 yard lines, creating a +5.6 yard edge. The 54.5% hit rate with positive ROI suggests sustainable value from Jacksonville's mobile offensive scheme.
What's Mac Jones's average Rushing Yards all games?
Mac Jones averages 12.91 rushing yards per game, which is 5.6 yards above his typical line of 7.32 yards. This 76% premium over market expectations reflects his increased mobility in Jacksonville's offensive system compared to his New England days.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mac Jones rushing overs in competitive games where scrambling becomes necessary for offensive success. Avoid in potential blowouts where Jacksonville might limit his mobility. Weather and game script neutrality create the best betting conditions for his rushing props.