Mac Jones has been a touchdown desert over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time with a brutal -0.4 differential versus his lines. The under has delivered a robust 33.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 42.7%. This trend screams LEAN UNDER.
Expert Analysis
Mac Jones's touchdown production has been catastrophically poor, averaging just 0.9 passing touchdowns per game against lines averaging 1.3 over his last 10 contests. This isn't marginal underperformance—it's systematic failure to reach even modest expectations. The 70% under rate represents one of the most reliable trends in quarterback props, driven by Jacksonville's offensive limitations and Jones's conservative role within the system. His longest over streak was just one game, while he rattled off five consecutive unders at one point, highlighting the consistency of this downturn. The -0.4 differential suggests books have been slow to adjust, creating persistent value on unders. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its sustainability—Jones isn't a high-volume thrower being unlucky in the red zone, but rather a game manager whose ceiling is artificially inflated by market perception. The 33.6% ROI on unders isn't just profitable, it's exceptional for quarterback props. While regression is always possible, the underlying offensive structure in Jacksonville suggests this isn't variance but reality. Jones's touchdown production reflects scheme limitations more than individual struggles, making this trend more predictable than typical quarterback volatility.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mac Jones has consistently failed to reach modest touchdown expectations, creating sustainable value on unders with a 70% hit rate and 33.6% ROI. The -0.4 differential indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his limited ceiling within Jacksonville's conservative offense. Target unders when his line sits at 1.5 or higher, though be cautious in potential blowout victories where garbage time could inflate numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mac Jones's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Mac Jones has gone 3-7-0 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. He's averaged 0.9 touchdowns per game against lines averaging 1.3, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mac Jones Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Mac Jones passing touchdowns. The 70% under rate and 33.6% ROI on unders over his last 10 games creates clear value, especially when his line sits at 1.5 or higher in Jacksonville's conservative offensive system.
What's Mac Jones's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Mac Jones averages 0.9 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 contests, significantly below his average line of 1.3. This -0.4 differential represents substantial underperformance that has consistently rewarded under bettors with profitable returns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mac Jones touchdown unders when his line is 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where Jacksonville faces strong defenses or projects to be trailing early, forcing more conservative game scripts that limit red zone opportunities.