Logan Thomas has cleared his receptions line in 6 of 10 games (60.0% over rate) with a +14.6% ROI on overs, averaging 3.5 receptions against a 3.4 line. The modest 0.1 positive differential suggests consistent value on overs. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Logan Thomas's 60% over rate on receptions props reflects his steady role in San Francisco's tight end rotation, though the narrow 0.1 differential between his 3.5 average and 3.4 line suggests books are pricing him fairly. The positive 14.6% ROI on overs indicates genuine value rather than random variance, likely driven by Thomas's reliable hands and Kyle Shanahan's system that frequently targets tight ends in short and intermediate routes. The 5-game over streak earlier in this sample demonstrates his ceiling when game scripts favor passing volume or when he's healthy and integrated into the offense. However, the recent single under and the modest differential raise regression concerns. Thomas's reception totals likely correlate with game flow and his health status, as tight ends in Shanahan's system can see dramatic target swings based on personnel packages and opponent coverage. The -23.6% ROI on unders suggests books may be undervaluing his floor, making selective over bets the superior approach. His reception props appear most profitable when San Francisco faces defenses that struggle against tight ends or in games with higher projected point totals where passing volume increases.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% over rate combined with positive ROI suggests legitimate edge rather than variance, though the narrow differential demands selectivity. Target Logan Thomas reception overs in games with higher projected totals or against defenses that struggle covering tight ends. Main risk is the modest sample size and recent regression toward the mean, making this a measured lean rather than aggressive play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Logan Thomas's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Logan Thomas has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% over rate), generating a +14.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors faced a -23.6% loss rate during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Logan Thomas Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Logan Thomas receptions props, but be selective. The 60% over rate with positive ROI suggests value, though the narrow 0.1 differential means you need favorable game conditions like higher totals or weak tight end coverage.
What's Logan Thomas's average Receptions last 10 games?
Logan Thomas has averaged 3.5 receptions over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 3.4, creating a modest +0.1 positive differential that suggests slight over value when conditions align properly.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Logan Thomas reception overs in games with higher projected point totals or against defenses that struggle covering tight ends. Avoid in low-total games or when San Francisco is heavily favored and likely to run frequently.