Logan Thomas has hit the over on his receiving yards prop exactly half the time across his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 with a neutral 50.0% over rate. His 30.2-yard average falls 1.4 yards short of typical market lines around 31.6 yards, suggesting books have him properly priced with a slight under bias.
Expert Analysis
Thomas's perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record masks the underlying weakness in his production relative to market expectations. The 1.4-yard negative differential between his actual output and betting lines represents consistent underperformance, though not severe enough to create a strong edge either direction. The -4.5% ROI on both sides confirms this is essentially a coin flip proposition. Thomas's role as a veteran tight end in San Francisco's system appears well-understood by oddsmakers, who've set lines that accurately reflect his ceiling and floor. The lack of significant splits data suggests his production remains relatively stable across different game situations, which actually works against bettors looking for exploitable spots. His current streak of one under follows the pattern we'd expect from a player whose props are efficiently priced. Without meaningful injury concerns or role changes, Thomas represents the type of prop where books have done their homework effectively. The absence of recent form volatility indicates his target share and usage have stabilized, making dramatic over or under runs less likely going forward.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Logan Thomas's receiving yards props appear efficiently priced by the market, with his 50.0% over rate and minimal ROI edge on either side indicating fair value. The 1.4-yard negative differential isn't significant enough to justify consistent under betting, especially given the small sample size and lack of clear directional momentum beyond his current single-game under streak.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 26.5 | 20.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 30.5 | 7.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 35.5 | 0.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 38.5 | 15.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 33.5 | 58.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 33.5 | 40.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 33.5 | 31.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 31.5 | 44.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 27.5 | 51.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Logan Thomas's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Logan Thomas has gone 5-5-0 on his receiving yards over/under props in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50.0% overs. His actual production averaged 30.2 yards compared to typical market lines around 31.6 yards, creating a small 1.4-yard negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Logan Thomas Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Logan Thomas receiving yards props. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate the market has him properly priced. Neither over nor under presents a meaningful edge worth pursuing consistently.
What's Logan Thomas's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Logan Thomas has averaged 30.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which falls 1.4 yards short of typical market lines around 31.6 yards. This slight underperformance isn't significant enough to create a strong betting angle either direction.
How reliable is this trend?
There's no optimal time to bet Logan Thomas receiving yards props based on this data. His production appears stable across situations with no exploitable splits, making this a fairly priced prop that lacks clear directional edges regardless of game context.