Lamar Jackson has obliterated passing touchdown props with a stunning 9-1-0 over record in his last 10 games, averaging 2.5 touchdowns against a 1.5 line. This 90% hit rate with a +71.8% ROI represents one of the strongest prop trends available. Strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Jackson's passing touchdown dominance stems from Baltimore's evolved offensive philosophy that maximizes his dual-threat capabilities in the red zone. The Ravens have transformed from a run-heavy attack to a balanced system where Jackson's mobility creates additional passing opportunities, particularly near the goal line where defenses must account for his rushing threat. His 2.5 average against a consistent 1.5 line indicates books haven't properly adjusted to his increased passing volume in scoring situations. The trend's persistence through 10 games suggests structural changes rather than variance, with Jackson's improved pocket presence allowing him to find receivers even when initial rushing lanes close. The eight-game over streak demonstrates remarkable consistency, indicating opposing defenses still struggle to contain both dimensions of his game simultaneously. However, regression risk exists as books begin factoring this data into future lines, and playoff-caliber defenses may present tougher challenges. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the overwhelming sample suggests Jackson has fundamentally changed how he attacks defenses in scoring territory, making him a consistent multi-touchdown passer regardless of game script.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Jackson's 90% over rate reflects genuine offensive evolution rather than random variance, with his dual-threat ability creating consistent red zone passing opportunities that books undervalue at 1.5. Target games where Baltimore faces teams allowing above-average passing touchdowns or in potential shootouts where multiple scores are likely. Main risk is line adjustment and playoff-level defensive schemes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lamar Jackson's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Jackson has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 9 of his last 10 games (90% hit rate), with only one under. This represents one of the strongest prop trends in the NFL this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lamar Jackson Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the over on Jackson's passing touchdowns props. His 9-1-0 record with 2.5 average against 1.5 lines shows consistent value, though expect some regression as books adjust pricing moving forward.
What's Lamar Jackson's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Jackson averages 2.5 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games against typical lines of 1.5, creating a significant +1.0 differential that indicates consistent undervaluation by sportsbooks in this market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jackson passing touchdown overs when Baltimore faces weaker pass defenses or in potential high-scoring games. His red zone dual-threat ability creates consistent opportunities regardless of game script or opponent strength.