Kyren Williams has delivered consistent rushing yard value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip with an impressive +7.7 yard average differential above his betting lines. The 14.6% ROI on overs signals legitimate market inefficiency, making Williams a strong lean over candidate moving forward.
Expert Analysis
Williams' rushing yard success stems from the Rams' commitment to establishing him as their primary ground weapon, particularly after solidifying his role midseason. The +7.7 yard differential above lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded workload and improved efficiency within Sean McVay's system. His 87.9 yard average demonstrates consistent production that transcends game script, as the Rams have increasingly relied on Williams to control clock and maintain offensive balance. The 60% over rate isn't just volume-driven—it reflects Williams' ability to break off chunk gains when defenses focus on containing Cooper Kupp and the passing attack. Most encouraging is the sustainability factor: Williams' success comes from consistent carries rather than boom-or-bust performances, reducing variance and making overs more reliable. The 4-game over streak earlier in the sample shows his ceiling, while only two consecutive unders indicates strong floor production. However, the -23.6% under ROI warns against blindly fading this trend if lines start adjusting upward significantly. Williams benefits from the Rams' improved offensive line play and McVay's increased willingness to lean on the ground game in crucial situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' consistent 87.9-yard average and +7.7 differential above lines creates legitimate value, especially when his props remain in the 75-85 yard range. The 60% hit rate with strong ROI suggests sustainable edge rather than variance-driven results. Primary risk involves potential line adjustments as books catch up to his expanded role, making early week betting optimal.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 74.5 | 106.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 85.5 | 76.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 92.5 | 56.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 83.5 | 122.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 73.5 | 108.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 67.5 | 87.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 80.5 | 104.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 72.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 85.5 | 86.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 85.5 | 62.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), generating a solid 14.6% return on investment for over bettors while producing -23.6% ROI for under backers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Williams' rushing yards props. His 87.9-yard average consistently beats his 80.2 average line by 7.7 yards, creating legitimate value with a proven 60% success rate over this 10-game sample.
What's Kyren Williams's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Williams is averaging 87.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to his average betting line of 80.2 yards, creating a favorable +7.7 yard differential that consistently provides value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams rushing yard overs early in the week when lines haven't adjusted to his expanded role. Focus on games where the Rams are slight favorites or in close matchups where game script favors balanced offensive approaches.