Kyren Williams has demolished his rushing yards props at home, going 9-6 over with an 88.27 yard average that beats the typical 73.7 line by 14.6 yards. The 60% over rate with +14.6% ROI creates a compelling edge despite a current two-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Williams transforms into a different runner at SoFi Stadium, where the Rams' offensive identity shifts toward establishing the ground game early. The 14.6-yard average differential isn't just statistical noise—it reflects how Los Angeles leverages home-field advantage to control tempo and wear down defenses. The Rams' offensive line performs measurably better in familiar surroundings, creating wider running lanes and sustaining blocks longer. Williams benefits from the crowd energy that helps dictate favorable game scripts, particularly when the Rams build early leads and lean on the running game to control clock. The 60% over rate across 15 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't random variance but a systematic advantage. However, the recent two-game under streak deserves attention, potentially indicating defensive adjustments or game script variations that could challenge this trend. The sample size provides confidence, but regression remains possible if opposing defenses begin targeting Williams more aggressively in home games or if the Rams' offensive line health deteriorates.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' home rushing performance shows genuine edge with that 14.6-yard differential over market expectations. The trend spans multiple seasons and game situations, indicating structural rather than situational advantage. Primary risk lies in the current under streak potentially signaling defensive adjustments, but the long-term data supports continued home field rushing success for Williams.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 85.5 | 76.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 92.5 | 56.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 67.5 | 87.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 72.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 85.5 | 62.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 97.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 90.5 | 76.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 81.5 | 102.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 89.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 89.5 | 104.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 90.5 | 152.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 63.5 | 88.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 65.5 | 158.0 | +92.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 53.5 | 53.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 29.5 | 52.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Kyren Williams has gone 9-6 over on his rushing yards props in home games, hitting the over 60% of the time. This 15-game sample shows consistent home-field advantage with a +14.6% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Rushing Yards home games?
Lean over on Williams' rushing yards at home. The 14.6-yard average differential above typical lines creates legitimate edge, though the recent two-game under streak requires caution when sizing bets.
What's Kyren Williams's average Rushing Yards home games?
Williams averages 88.27 rushing yards in home games compared to the typical 73.7 line, creating a significant 14.6-yard cushion. This differential has proven consistent across multiple seasons and game situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams rushing overs when the Rams are favored at home and weather conditions are favorable. Avoid when facing elite run defenses or if he's dealing with minor injury concerns affecting workload.