Kyren Williams has been a consistent over performer in rushing yards props, hitting 18 of 29 games (62.1%) while averaging 87.8 yards against a 73.6 line average. The +14.2 yard differential and 18.5% ROI on overs reflects his role as the Rams' primary ground option in Sean McVay's system. Lean over on Williams rushing yards props.
Expert Analysis
Williams' over tendency stems from his established role as the Rams' workhorse back and McVay's commitment to establishing the ground game. The 14.2-yard average differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his floor, likely anchoring to his smaller frame rather than his actual usage patterns. His 62.1% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but systematic underpricing. The Rams' offensive philosophy emphasizes getting Williams touches in space, and his pass-catching ability creates additional rushing opportunities through screens and checkdowns that turn into YAC. Most importantly, Williams has shown remarkable consistency when healthy, with his longest under streak maxing at just three games compared to six straight overs. The 18.5% ROI demonstrates this edge has been profitable, not just frequent. However, the sample includes his breakout 2023 season and established 2024 role, so regression risk exists if the Rams' offensive approach shifts or Williams faces increased defensive attention. The lack of significant split variations suggests this trend holds across different game scripts and matchups, making it more reliable than situational props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 62.1% over rate and +14.2 yard differential reflect genuine market inefficiency rather than lucky variance. The Rams' commitment to their ground game and Williams' dual-threat ability create consistent opportunities to exceed modest rushing lines. Primary risk is potential regression as the market adjusts to his established role, but the trend's consistency across various situations supports continued value on overs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 74.5 | 106.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 85.5 | 76.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 92.5 | 56.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 83.5 | 122.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 73.5 | 108.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 67.5 | 87.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 80.5 | 104.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 72.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 85.5 | 86.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 85.5 | 62.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 93.5 | 69.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 97.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 90.5 | 76.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 81.5 | 102.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 78.5 | 94.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Kyren Williams has hit the over on his rushing yards prop in 18 of 29 games (62.1%) with an 18-11 over/under record. He's averaging 87.8 rushing yards against a 73.6 average line, creating a +14.2 yard differential that's generated 18.5% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Rushing Yards all games?
Bet over on Kyren Williams rushing yards props. His 62.1% over rate and +14.2 average differential above the line represents genuine market inefficiency. The Rams' ground-heavy approach and Williams' consistent usage create reliable value on overs with medium confidence.
What's Kyren Williams's average Rushing Yards all games?
Kyren Williams averages 87.8 rushing yards per game against an average line of 73.6 yards. This +14.2 yard differential demonstrates consistent outperformance, with oddsmakers systematically undervaluing his rushing floor despite his established role as the Rams' primary back.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Williams rushing yards overs consistently across all game situations. His trend shows no significant split variations, meaning the edge exists regardless of matchup or game script. Focus on games where lines appear particularly conservative relative to his recent usage patterns.