Kyren Williams has been a reception prop disaster over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time while averaging 1.8 receptions against a 2.1 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI, making Williams a prime fade candidate for reception props.
Expert Analysis
Williams' reception struggles stem from the Rams' evolving offensive identity and his role as primarily a between-the-tackles runner. The 0.3 reception deficit per game against the line reveals consistent market overvaluation of his pass-catching involvement. This isn't a fluke regression—it's structural. The Rams have leaned heavily into Williams as their workhorse back, with 1,299 rushing yards this season, but that volume comes at the expense of passing down work. Los Angeles increasingly turns to other options in obvious passing situations, limiting Williams to designed checkdowns rather than consistent target volume. The current under streak of one game follows a pattern where Williams rarely strings together multiple over performances, suggesting his reception totals are more volatile and game-script dependent than the market prices. His longest under streak of three games this season demonstrates how quickly he can disappear from the passing game when the Rams establish other offensive rhythms. The 23.6% ROI loss on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but recreational betting continues to inflate his reception lines based on his rushing success.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 40% over rate and negative 0.3 differential reveal systematic market overvaluation of his pass-catching role. The ideal spot is when his reception line sits at 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where the Rams project to control pace and lean on his rushing ability. The main risk is garbage time or blowout scenarios forcing increased passing volume, but his consistent under performance suggests betting the under provides sustainable value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone 4-6-0 over/under on his reception props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging 1.8 receptions against a typical line of 2.1, creating a consistent 0.3 reception deficit that sharp bettors have exploited.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the under on Williams' reception props. His 40% over rate and 14.6% ROI on under bets show clear market inefficiency. The Rams use him primarily as a rusher, limiting his consistent involvement in the passing game despite his overall offensive importance.
What's Kyren Williams's average Receptions last 10 games?
Williams averages 1.8 receptions over his last 10 games compared to his typical 2.1 line, creating a 0.3 reception deficit. This gap represents the market consistently overvaluing his pass-catching role while underestimating the Rams' ground-heavy offensive approach.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams reception unders when his line is 2.5 or higher, especially in games where the Rams project to control pace. Avoid betting when Los Angeles faces large deficits early, as garbage time passing can artificially inflate his target volume.