Kyren Williams has crushed the under on receptions in away games, hitting just 23.1% overs across 13 games with a brutal -0.7 differential from the typical 2.65 line. Currently riding six straight unders, this represents one of the clearest fade opportunities in the prop market.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Kyren Williams struggling to meet reception expectations on the road. Averaging just 2.0 catches per away game against lines typically set around 2.65, Williams consistently falls short by meaningful margins. This isn't a small sample fluke—13 games provides substantial evidence of a legitimate trend. The Rams' offensive identity shifts dramatically in hostile environments, where they lean more heavily on their ground game and quick-strike passing rather than the checkdown-heavy approach that inflates Williams's reception totals at home. Road games typically feature more negative game scripts for Los Angeles, forcing them into obvious passing situations where defenses key on Williams as a safety valve less frequently. The current six-game under streak suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic issue with how the market prices Williams's receiving role away from Los Angeles. The -55.9% ROI on overs tells the complete story—this is a market inefficiency that sharp bettors have exploited consistently. Williams's receiving usage appears fundamentally different in road environments, where the Rams prioritize efficiency over volume in their passing attack.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 23.1% over rate and -0.7 average differential create a clear edge, but regression risk exists after six straight unders. Target this trend when Williams faces defenses that excel at limiting running back receptions or when the Rams are road favorites, suggesting they'll control tempo. Main risk is a blowout game script forcing heavy passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Receptions prop record away games?
Williams has gone 3-10-0 on reception overs in away games, hitting just 23.1% of overs across 13 games. He's currently on a six-game under streak, his longest of the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Receptions away games?
Bet the under on Williams's receptions in away games. The 23.1% over rate and -0.7 average differential from the line create substantial value, especially with his current six-game under streak.
What's Kyren Williams's average Receptions away games?
Williams averages 2.0 receptions in away games compared to the typical 2.65 line, creating a -0.7 differential. This consistent shortfall has produced a +46.9% ROI on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams reception unders when the Rams play road games against defenses that limit running back catches or when they're favored, suggesting controlled game scripts that reduce passing volume.