Kyren Williams receptions props offer a strong under edge with just 38.5% overs across 26 games. The Rams back averages 2.42 receptions against typical 2.69 lines, creating a -0.3 differential that has generated +17.5% ROI betting unders. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Kyren Williams' reception totals consistently fall short of market expectations, revealing a fundamental disconnect between his role and betting lines. The 38.5% over rate across 26 games isn't just poor luck—it reflects the Rams' offensive philosophy that prioritizes Williams as a between-the-tackles runner rather than a pass-catching weapon. His 2.42 reception average sits meaningfully below typical 2.69 lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited receiving role. The -26.6% ROI on overs tells the story of consistent market overvaluation, while under bettors have profited at +17.5%. Williams' usage pattern shows the Rams deploy him primarily in rushing situations, with passing downs often going to other backs or spread formations that remove him from the field. The current streak of one under follows a longer five-game under streak, indicating this isn't random variance but systematic underperformance versus inflated lines. Without significant changes to offensive coordinator usage or Williams' pass-catching skills, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Kyren Williams receptions props consistently offer value on the under side, with his 2.42 average trailing typical lines by 0.3 receptions. The Rams' run-heavy approach with Williams limits his receiving opportunities, making inflated lines exploitable. Primary risk is increased passing game usage if the Rams fall behind early, but his limited route-running role suggests sustainability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Receptions prop record all games?
Kyren Williams has gone over his receptions prop in just 10 of 26 games (38.5%) since September 2023. His under record of 16-10-0 demonstrates consistent market overvaluation of his receiving role in the Rams offense.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Receptions all games?
Bet under on Kyren Williams receptions props. His 2.42 average sits 0.3 below typical lines, generating +17.5% ROI for under bettors while overs lose -26.6%. The Rams use him primarily as a runner.
What's Kyren Williams's average Receptions all games?
Kyren Williams averages 2.42 receptions per game across 26 contests, compared to typical betting lines around 2.69. This -0.3 differential creates consistent value betting under his reception totals in most game situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kyren Williams reception unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, especially in games where the Rams project to control pace. Avoid when Los Angeles faces large deficits that could force increased passing.