Kyren Williams has been a receiving yards under machine, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 8.1 yards against 12.0 lines. The Rams running back's limited pass-catching role has created consistent value on unders with a +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Williams' receiving yards struggles stem from the Rams' evolved offensive identity and his primary role as a between-the-tackles runner. Averaging just 8.1 receiving yards against 12.0 lines represents a massive 32.5% shortfall that reflects systematic underutilization in the passing game. The 70% under rate isn't fluky — it's structural. Los Angeles has increasingly leaned on Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and tight ends for underneath work, relegating Williams to occasional checkdowns and screens. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates how consistently the Rams have kept him grounded. The -3.9 yard differential per game compounds over time, creating reliable value for under bettors. Williams' skill set favors power running over route-running, and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has adapted accordingly. Even in negative game scripts where you'd expect more passing work, Williams has rarely exceeded modest receiving totals. The trend shows remarkable persistence because it reflects coaching philosophy rather than random variance. Williams remains the clear lead back but in a role that emphasizes his rushing ability over pass-catching versatility.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Williams' 30% over rate and -3.9 yard differential represent systematic undervaluation of his limited receiving role in the Rams offense. The trend persists because it reflects coaching decisions, not variance. Target unders when lines exceed 10 yards, especially in neutral game scripts where LA can stick to their ground-heavy approach. Main risk is garbage-time volume in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 12.5 | -1.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 9.5 | 16.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 10.5 | 4.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 9.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 14.5 | 20.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone 3-7-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% while averaging 8.1 yards against typical 12.0 lines for a -42.7% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Williams' 70% under rate and -3.9 yard differential reflect his limited pass-catching role in the Rams offense, creating sustainable value on unders.
What's Kyren Williams's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Williams averages 8.1 receiving yards over his last 10 games, falling 3.9 yards short of typical 12.0 lines. This 32.5% shortfall demonstrates consistent underperformance versus market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams receiving yards unders when lines exceed 10 yards in neutral game scripts. His limited role creates best value when books overestimate his passing game involvement.