Kyren Williams has been a consistent under performer in receiving yards at home, hitting the over just 46.7% of the time across 15 games. His 12.67-yard home average sits nearly four yards below typical betting lines, creating a profitable -10.9% ROI on overs versus +1.8% on unders.
Expert Analysis
The Rams' home environment appears to suppress Williams' receiving production, with his 12.67-yard average trailing the standard 16.57 line by 3.9 yards per game. This isn't a small sample fluke — across 15 home contests dating back to September 2023, Williams has consistently fallen short of market expectations. The negative differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced pass-catching role at SoFi Stadium. Several factors likely contribute to this trend. Home games often feature the Rams controlling tempo and leaning on their ground game when leading, reducing Williams' targets in obvious passing situations. Additionally, opposing defenses may game-plan differently at home, potentially bracketing receiving backs more aggressively. The persistence of this trend across multiple seasons indicates structural factors rather than random variance. With Williams averaging nearly four yards below the typical line, bettors have found consistent value on the under. The recent two-game over streak shouldn't overshadow the broader pattern — Williams has hit multiple two-game streaks in both directions, but the underlying numbers favor continued under performance. The +1.8% ROI on unders, while modest, represents sustainable profit over the long term when combined with proper bankroll management.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 3.9-yard negative differential provides consistent value, though the modest +1.8% under ROI suggests careful line shopping is essential. Target this play when Williams' receiving yards line sits at 16+ yards, particularly in games where the Rams are favored and likely to control the ground game. The main risk is increased passing volume if Los Angeles falls behind early, but the home trend remains statistically significant.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 9.5 | 16.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 14.5 | 20.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 18.5 | 3.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 27.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 3.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 22.5 | 24.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 21.5 | 4.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 48.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Williams has gone 7-8 on receiving yards overs in home games, hitting just 46.7% across 15 contests since September 2023. This translates to a -10.9% ROI for over bettors versus +1.8% profit on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on Williams' receiving yards at home. His 12.67-yard average sits 3.9 yards below typical lines, creating consistent value. Target games where the line exceeds 16 yards for maximum edge.
What's Kyren Williams's average Receiving Yards home games?
Williams averages 12.67 receiving yards in home games compared to the typical 16.57 betting line. This 3.9-yard negative differential has persisted across 15 games, indicating systematic underperformance versus market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams receiving yards unders when the Rams are home favorites with lines above 16 yards. These conditions maximize the edge, as Los Angeles typically controls tempo and reduces pass-catching back opportunities when leading.