Kylen Granson's reception props present a stark under opportunity with just one over in 10 games (10.0% hit rate). The Colts tight end averages 1.1 receptions against a 2.1 line, creating a massive -1.0 differential. This trend screams systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
Kylen Granson's reception totals reveal a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and Indianapolis offensive reality. The 10.0% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects structural issues in how the Colts deploy their tight end personnel. Granson's 1.1 reception average sits a full catch below typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers are pricing him based on positional expectations rather than actual usage patterns. The seven-game under streak indicates persistent offensive game planning that minimizes Granson's receiving role, likely favoring other pass-catchers or emphasizing his blocking duties. Indianapolis has shown consistent patterns in their offensive approach, making this trend more predictable than random variance would suggest. The -80.9% ROI on overs demonstrates how severely the market has mispriced Granson's actual involvement in the passing game. Without significant injury changes to Indianapolis receivers or dramatic offensive philosophy shifts, this usage pattern appears sustainable. The Colts' offensive coordinator has established clear preferences for target distribution, and Granson consistently falls outside the primary receiving options in most game scripts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1-9-0 record and -1.0 average differential create compelling value on under bets, particularly when lines exceed 2.0 receptions. Target games where Indianapolis faces strong run defenses that might force more blocking assignments for Granson. The primary risk involves potential injury to other Colts receivers that could suddenly elevate his target share, making game-time roster monitoring essential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kylen Granson's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Granson has gone 1-9-0 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. He's currently riding a seven-game under streak with only one over hit during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kylen Granson Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Granson's receptions. The 1-9-0 record and 1.1 average against 2.1 lines create strong under value. Focus on games where lines are set at 2.0+ receptions for maximum edge.
What's Kylen Granson's average Receptions last 10 games?
Granson averages 1.1 receptions over his last 10 games against typical lines around 2.1, creating a significant -1.0 differential. This gap represents consistent market overvaluation of his receiving role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target under bets when lines exceed 2.0 receptions and Indianapolis faces strong run defenses requiring more blocking. Avoid betting when multiple Colts receivers are questionable, as injury could boost his targets.