Kylen Granson has been a consistent over performer on receiving yards props, hitting the over in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% rate) while averaging 22.3 yards against a 14.1 average line. The +8.2 yard differential and +14.6% ROI on overs signal legitimate value in backing Granson's receiving production.
Expert Analysis
Kylen Granson's receiving yards trend reveals a tight end who has found his role within the Colts' offensive system, consistently exceeding market expectations. The 22.3 yard average against a 14.1 line suggests oddsmakers are undervaluing his involvement, creating an exploitable edge. This 8.2 yard differential is substantial for a position where props typically range between 15-25 yards. The 60% over rate demonstrates consistency rather than boom-or-bust variance, indicating Granson has carved out reliable targets regardless of game script. His production appears sustainable given the Colts' need for reliable possession receivers and Anthony Richardson's development requiring safety valve options. The +14.6% ROI on overs validates this isn't just statistical noise but genuine market inefficiency. However, the tight end position remains volatile week-to-week, and Granson's role could shift with personnel changes or game flow. The lack of recent split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the overall trend suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his expanded usage. Indianapolis likely views Granson as a key piece moving forward, supporting continued target volume that should maintain this favorable trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Granson's 8.2 yard average differential above the line represents clear value, supported by a 60% over rate and positive ROI. The consistency of his production suggests this isn't variance but genuine market mispricing. Target overs when lines stay in the 14-16 yard range, as books appear slow to adjust. Main risk is the inherent volatility of tight end usage and potential game script dependencies that could limit targets in blowout scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 47.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 15.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 40.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 22.5 | 23.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 21.5 | 13.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 16.5 | 62.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 14.5 | 6.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kylen Granson's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Kylen Granson has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60.0% over rate. His 6-4-0 record on overs has generated a +14.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kylen Granson Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Kylen Granson receiving yards props. His 22.3 yard average significantly exceeds the typical 14.1 line, creating an 8.2 yard edge. The 60% over rate and positive ROI support backing overs with medium confidence.
What's Kylen Granson's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Kylen Granson has averaged 22.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 14.1 yards. This creates a substantial +8.2 yard differential that consistently favors over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kylen Granson receiving yards overs when lines remain in the 14-16 yard range, as books appear slow to adjust to his expanded role. Avoid in potential blowout games where tight end usage could decrease significantly.