Kylen Granson's receiving yards props have been a consistent under play, hitting just 47.1% overs across 17 games with a -10.2% ROI on the over. Despite averaging 20.18 yards against a 17.44 line, the frequency of overs doesn't justify the juice. Lean under.
Expert Analysis
Kylen Granson's receiving yards trend reveals a classic case where raw averages mask betting reality. While the Indianapolis tight end averages 20.18 yards against a typical 17.44 line—a seemingly favorable 2.7-yard cushion—the distribution tells a different story. His 8-9 over record translates to just 47.1% success rate, well below the 52.4% break-even threshold needed to overcome standard -110 juice. This suggests Granson's production follows a boom-or-bust pattern typical of secondary receiving options. When he connects, he likely exceeds the line significantly, inflating his average. However, these explosive games are offset by quiet performances where Indianapolis leans on their primary weapons or establishes the run. The Colts' offensive philosophy and Granson's role as the third or fourth receiving option create inherent volatility that favors the under despite his respectable per-game average. Without consistent target share or red zone usage, Granson remains dependent on game script and defensive coverage breakdowns—factors too unpredictable for profitable over betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.1% over rate combined with -10.2% ROI on overs creates a clear mathematical edge for under bettors. Granson's boom-or-bust profile as a secondary option makes the under the sharper play despite his solid average. Target this when the line sits at 17-18 yards, where the frequency of quiet games should provide consistent value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 47.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 15.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 40.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 22.5 | 23.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 21.5 | 13.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 16.5 | 62.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 14.5 | 6.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 22.5 | 5.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 21.5 | 67.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 15.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Kylen Granson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kylen Granson's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Kylen Granson's receiving yards props show an 8-9 over/under record across 17 games, hitting overs just 47.1% of the time. This translates to a -10.2% ROI for over bettors while under bettors enjoy a +1.1% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kylen Granson Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Kylen Granson's receiving yards props. His 47.1% over rate falls well below break-even, and under bettors show positive ROI while over bettors lose money consistently. The math strongly favors the under despite his decent averages.
What's Kylen Granson's average Receiving Yards all games?
Kylen Granson averages 20.18 receiving yards per game against a typical line of 17.44 yards. While this 2.7-yard cushion looks favorable, his boom-bust production pattern means the over hits less than half the time, making averages misleading.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Granson receiving yards unders when lines sit between 17-18 yards, matching his historical average. Avoid when Indianapolis faces pass-funnel defenses or in potential shootouts where his secondary role could see increased targets and usage.