K.J. Osborn presents a compelling under opportunity despite averaging 33.0 receiving yards versus a 28.81 line average. His 7-9 over/under record (43.8% hit rate) paired with -16.5% ROI on overs and positive 7.4% ROI on unders creates clear value. LEAN UNDER.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a story of market overvaluation on Osborn's receiving yard props. While his 33.0 yard average suggests he consistently exceeds his typical 28.81 line, the 43.8% over rate reveals this production isn't translating to profitable over bets. The -16.5% ROI on overs indicates sportsbooks are pricing his props efficiently or even favorably toward the house. Osborn's role as Washington's third or fourth receiving option creates inherent volatility - he might explode for 60+ yards one week then disappear with 12 the next. This boom-bust profile explains why his season average looks appealing while his over rate remains poor. The current three-game under streak suggests recent game scripts haven't favored his involvement, possibly due to Washington leaning on their primary targets or facing defensive schemes that limit slot production. His 4.2 yard differential above the line seems significant, but the consistent under performance indicates this average is inflated by a few outlier games rather than sustained weekly production. The positive under ROI demonstrates that betting against Osborn's props has been the profitable strategy, likely because his target share and snap percentage fluctuate based on game flow and opponent coverage.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of poor over performance (43.8%) and negative ROI (-16.5%) on overs creates clear value on the under side. Osborn's boom-bust profile as a secondary receiver makes him prone to quiet games that fall short of inflated lines. Best spots are when Washington faces strong pass defenses or when his line exceeds 30 yards, as the market consistently overestimates his weekly floor.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 3.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 19.5 | 7.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 21.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 95.0 | +73.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 22.5 | 3.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 15.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 29.5 | 34.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 30.5 | 7.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 33.5 | 17.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 38.5 | 99.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-23 | OPP | 41.5 | 47.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 42.5 | 48.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 31.5 | 49.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 29.5 | 16.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 36.5 | 36.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is K.J. Osborn's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Osborn's receiving yards record stands at 7-9 over/under across 16 games, hitting the over just 43.8% of the time. Despite averaging 33.0 yards against a 28.81 average line, his props consistently fall short of market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Osborn's receiving yards props. His 43.8% over rate combined with -16.5% ROI on overs and positive 7.4% ROI on unders creates clear value. The market consistently overprices his weekly production expectations.
What's K.J. Osborn's average Receiving Yards all games?
Osborn averages 33.0 receiving yards per game, which is 4.2 yards above his typical 28.81 line. However, this average is misleading as his 43.8% over rate shows he fails to reach his prop more often than not.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Osborn under bets when his line exceeds 30 yards or when Washington faces strong pass defenses. His secondary receiver role and boom-bust profile make him most vulnerable when the market inflates his weekly expectations.