Kirk Cousins's rushing yards prop presents a premium fade opportunity with just 18.2% overs across 11 games. The veteran quarterback averages -0.45 rushing yards against a 1.95 line, creating a massive 2.4-yard negative differential. LEAN UNDER is the clear play.
Expert Analysis
Kirk Cousins's rushing yards prop represents one of the most predictable fades in the NFL, driven by his pocket-passing style and Atlanta's offensive philosophy. The 31-year-old quarterback has never been a mobile threat, and his advanced age has only reduced what little scrambling ability he possessed. The Falcons utilize Cousins as a pure pocket passer, with their rushing attack built around Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier rather than designed quarterback runs. Cousins's -0.45 average against a 1.95 line reveals how consistently he falls short, often finishing with negative rushing yards due to sack yardage. The current eight-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the natural result of his playing style and Atlanta's offensive system. Books continue setting the line near 2 yards, likely accounting for potential scrambles that rarely materialize with Cousins. His immobility in the pocket actually works against accumulating rushing yards, as he tends to take sacks rather than escape for minimal gains. The trend's persistence suggests this isn't variance but a fundamental mismatch between his skill set and the prop requirement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Cousins's pocket-passing style and Atlanta's offensive system create a consistent edge against his rushing props. The eight-game under streak reflects his fundamental lack of mobility rather than random variance. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as Cousins rarely scrambles and often loses yardage on sacks. Main risk is a blowout game forcing designed runs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | -11.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 0.5 | -5.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 2.5 | -5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 10.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kirk Cousins's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Kirk Cousins has gone under his rushing yards prop in 9 of 11 games (81.8% under rate) with just 2 overs. His record shows 2-9-0 O/U, making this one of the most consistent under trends for any quarterback prop this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Kirk Cousins rushing yards props. His 18.2% over rate and eight-game under streak reflect his pocket-passing style. The under has delivered +56.2% ROI while overs have lost -65.3%, making this a clear fade opportunity.
What's Kirk Cousins's average Rushing Yards all games?
Kirk Cousins averages -0.45 rushing yards across all games against a typical line of 1.95 yards. This creates a massive 2.4-yard negative differential, meaning he consistently falls well short of even modest rushing expectations set by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kirk Cousins rushing yards unders when the line is 1.5 or higher, especially in competitive games where Atlanta can rely on their passing attack. Avoid in potential blowout losses where garbage-time scrambling might occur late in games.