Kirk Cousins has hit the over in exactly half his games (5-5-0) over the last 10 contests, but his 264.4 yard average sits 18.9 yards above typical lines. The modest volume edge suggests lean over potential despite the balanced record.
Expert Analysis
Kirk Cousins's passing yards performance reveals a quarterback finding his rhythm in Atlanta's offensive system. The 264.4 yard average represents solid production that consistently exceeds market expectations by nearly 19 yards per game. This differential suggests oddsmakers may be undervaluing Cousins's current form and the Falcons' passing game requirements. The perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record masks the underlying value, as Cousins has been beating his lines more often than the record indicates. His recent integration with Atlanta's receiving corps, particularly the Drake London and Kyle Pitts connection, has created a floor for passing attempts that supports volume-based overs. The Falcons' competitive NFC South race has forced them into more aggressive offensive game plans, benefiting Cousins's passing statistics. However, Atlanta's improved rushing attack with Bijan Robinson could cap Cousins's ceiling in favorable game scripts. The lack of extreme streaks (longest run just 2 games either direction) suggests consistent performance rather than volatile swings. Weather and opponent quality remain the primary variables that could shift this trend, but Cousins's veteran pocket presence has minimized dramatic fluctuations in his passing output.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 18.9 yard average differential above typical lines creates legitimate value despite the balanced record. Cousins's consistent volume in Atlanta's pass-heavy approach provides a reliable floor around 250+ yards. Target overs in competitive games or when facing pass-funnel defenses, but avoid in obvious run-game scripts or severe weather conditions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 240.5 | 112.0 | -128.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 244.5 | 344.0 | +99.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 241.5 | 245.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 241.5 | 173.0 | -68.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 242.5 | 306.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 253.5 | 222.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 242.5 | 276.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 266.5 | 232.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 252.5 | 225.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 229.5 | 509.0 | +279.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Kirk Cousins props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kirk Cousins's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Kirk Cousins went 5-5-0 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of his overs. Despite the balanced record, he averaged 264.4 yards per game, consistently outperforming market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kirk Cousins Passing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Kirk Cousins passing yards props. His 264.4 yard average beats typical lines by 18.9 yards, creating value despite the 5-5 record. Focus on competitive games and favorable matchups.
What's Kirk Cousins's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Kirk Cousins averaged 264.4 passing yards over his last 10 games, sitting 18.9 yards above the typical 245.5 line. This differential suggests consistent value on over bets despite mixed results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kirk Cousins passing yards overs in competitive games where Atlanta needs to throw, against pass-funnel defenses, or in dome environments. Avoid in blowouts where the Falcons can rely on their ground game.