Kirk Cousins shows a marginal 52.4% over rate on passing touchdown props with a modest +0.2 differential above the 1.5 line. However, his current five-game under streak and flat ROI suggest the market has adjusted efficiently. This creates a borderline situation with limited edge either direction.
Expert Analysis
Cousins' passing touchdown production presents a fascinating case study in market efficiency. His 1.71 average against a 1.5 line appears promising on surface, but the flat 0.0% ROI on overs reveals books have priced this accurately. The 52.4% over rate barely exceeds the breakeven threshold needed to overcome juice, indicating minimal long-term profitability. The current five-game under streak matches his season-long over streak, suggesting natural variance rather than a fundamental shift in his red zone efficiency. What's particularly telling is the -9.1% ROI on unders, indicating the market slightly overadjusts when pricing down his touchdown props. This creates a subtle inefficiency favoring overs in specific spots. Cousins' touchdown production typically correlates with game script and red zone opportunities rather than pure volume, making situational analysis crucial. His ability to find the end zone consistently hovers right around that 1.5 threshold, making this prop highly sensitive to matchup-specific factors like opponent red zone defense rankings and projected game flow. Without additional context on pace, weather, or defensive matchups, the historical data suggests a player whose touchdown output has been efficiently priced by the market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The slight positive differential (+0.2) and marginally negative under ROI (-9.1%) suggest books occasionally underprice Cousins' touchdown potential. However, the flat overall ROI and current under streak limit conviction. Best approached selectively when game script factors align favorably, particularly in projected shootouts or against weaker red zone defenses where his 1.71 average has more runway above the standard 1.5 line.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kirk Cousins's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Kirk Cousins has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 11 of 21 games (52.4%) with an 11-10 record. He's averaging 1.71 touchdowns per game against a typical 1.5 line, creating a +0.2 positive differential over 21 games this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kirk Cousins Passing TDs all games?
Lean over on Kirk Cousins passing touchdowns props, but with low confidence. His 1.71 average beats the 1.5 line consistently, and the -9.1% under ROI suggests occasional market overadjustment. However, flat overall returns require selective timing and favorable matchups.
What's Kirk Cousins's average Passing TDs all games?
Kirk Cousins averages 1.71 passing touchdowns per game compared to the standard 1.5 prop line. This +0.2 differential provides a modest edge, though his current five-game under streak shows the natural variance around this threshold in real-time action.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kirk Cousins touchdown overs in projected high-scoring games against weaker red zone defenses. His production clusters around the 1.5 line, making game script crucial. Avoid during his current under streak unless matchup factors strongly favor multiple touchdown opportunities.