Khalil Herbert's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on the over side. The Bengals running back is averaging 35.5 yards against lines averaging 30.3, but that modest 5.2-yard edge masks consistent underperformance when it matters for bettors.
Expert Analysis
Herbert's rushing yard props tell the story of a player caught in Cincinnati's pass-heavy offensive identity and inconsistent role deployment. The 30% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects structural issues that make Herbert a consistent under play. His 35.5-yard average slightly exceeds the 30.3 line average, but this modest differential gets eroded by the juice and doesn't account for game script dependencies. The current four-game under streak highlights how Herbert's usage fluctuates based on game flow, with the Bengals often abandoning the run when trailing. Cincinnati's offensive philosophy under their current coaching staff heavily favors Joe Burrow's arm, relegating Herbert to a complementary role that rarely produces explosive rushing performances. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates that sportsbooks have been too optimistic about Herbert's ceiling, consistently setting lines that overestimate his weekly rushing volume. This trend appears sustainable given Cincinnati's offensive tendencies and Herbert's role as more of a change-of-pace back than a featured rusher. The lack of split data actually strengthens the under case, as it suggests Herbert's struggles aren't situational but rather systematic to his current role.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Herbert's 70% under rate combined with the devastating -42.7% over ROI creates a clear edge that aligns with Cincinnati's pass-first offensive philosophy. The four-game under streak isn't variance—it's the natural result of Herbert's limited role in an offense built around Burrow. Target his rushing yard unders when lines sit above 30 yards, especially in games where Cincinnati could face negative game scripts that force them away from the ground game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 9.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 3.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 27.5 | 4.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 60.5 | 28.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 26.5 | 124.0 | +97.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 112.0 | +73.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 20.5 | 8.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 53.5 | 24.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 32.5 | 35.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Khalil Herbert's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Herbert has gone 3-7-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 35.5 rushing yards against lines averaging 30.3 yards, but over bettors have lost money with a -42.7% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Herbert's rushing yards props with high confidence. His 70% under rate and brutal -42.7% over ROI create a clear edge, especially given Cincinnati's pass-heavy offensive approach that limits his weekly rushing volume consistently.
What's Khalil Herbert's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Herbert is averaging 35.5 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to average lines of 30.3 yards. While he's slightly exceeding expectations by 5.2 yards per game, this modest edge hasn't translated to profitable over betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert rushing yard unders when lines exceed 30 yards, particularly in games where Cincinnati faces potential negative game scripts. His role limitations in the Bengals' pass-first offense make unders most profitable in competitive or deficit situations.